18/06/2026 22:00 - Economia
Gráfico financiero profesional mostrando la caída del riesgo país argentino a 425 puntos básicos con indicadores económicos positivos como inflación del 2,1% y calificación crediticia mejorada, colores vibrantes en verde y azul
Argentina's country risk dropped to 425 basis points on June 18, 2026, marking its lowest level since April 2018. This indicator measures the risk premium investors demand to purchase Argentine sovereign bonds over US Treasury bonds, reflecting a clear downward trend that signals improving economic perception.
This positive momentum is supported by multiple factors: inflation at 2.1% in May, S&P's upgraded credit rating from CCC+ to B-, and a Central Bank that has accumulated USD 10.6 billion in net purchases in the foreign exchange market.
The World Bank approved guarantees for USD 2 billion, covering 95% of the commercial loan with a 6-year term and 3-year grace period. Additionally, the IDB approved USD 500 million in financing toward a total USD 1.2 billion package for the PROSEJUS security and justice program.
President Javier Milei met at the Olivos Presidential Residence with World Bank Vice President Susana Cordeiro Guerra and IDB President Ilan Goldfajn, in negotiations aimed at strengthening international reserves ahead of the USD 4.4 billion debt payment due July 9, 2026.
According to Bank of America's report 'Two of Three Planets Aligned', Argentina shows progress on inflation and external accounts, though economic growth remains the missing element. Projections estimate GDP growth of 3% in 2026 and 3.5% in 2027.
The Mediterranean Foundation reported that Argentine provinces ended 2025 with a financial deficit of 0.4% of GDP, following a 0.1% surplus in 2024. In 2025, provincial spending grew 6.5% while revenues increased only 2.9%.
| Indicator | Value | Context |
|---|---|---|
| Country Risk | 425 basis points | Lowest since April 2018 |
| S&P Credit Rating | B- | Upgraded from CCC+ |
| May 2026 Inflation | 2.1% | Downward trend |
| Central Bank Net Purchases | USD 10.6 billion | Cumulative total |
| World Bank Support | USD 2 billion | Guarantees approved |
| IDB Financing | USD 500 million | For PROSEJUS program |
| Next Debt Payment | USD 4.4 billion | Due July 9, 2026 |
Country risk is an indicator measuring the probability that a nation will default on its financial obligations. Expressed in basis points (100 basis points = 1%), a value of 425 basis points means investors demand an additional 4.25% return above US Treasury bonds to purchase Argentine sovereign bonds. A lower indicator reflects greater market confidence in the local economy.
Argentina faces total obligations of USD 35 billion through 2027. Bank of America recommends issuing debt before year-end to avoid electoral volatility in 2027. The foreign exchange gap remains controlled at approximately 0.7%, while the wholesale dollar trades at 1,441.5 Argentine pesos.
Additionally, CAF (Development Bank of Latin America) may approve an additional USD 500 million on July 22, 2026, adding to the external financing flow supporting Argentina's macroeconomic stability.
Alfredo S. Quiroga
