The Central Bank of the Argentine Republic (BCRA) wrapped up the week with positive news: gross international reserves hit US$50.655 billion, a seven-year high. However, behind this record number lies a more nuanced reality: official dollar purchases are losing steam and the foreign exchange market shows signs of tension.
According to a report by Ámbito Finanzas, the gross stock rose US$313 million in the Friday, August 21 session, consolidating the recovery above US$50 billion. The main driver was gold, which advanced 2% to US$4,661 per ounce, contributing around US$170 million to the Central Bank's holdings value.
BCRA Purchases: The Pace Slows Down
The institution led by Santiago Bausili bought just US$23 million on Friday's trading session, against a traded volume of US$583 million (only 4% of the total). With this result, the net buying balance for August stands at US$466 million, and the cumulative total for 2026 reaches US$13.793 billion.
However, the daily average for August is just US$33 million, well below July's US$103 million, June's US$68 million, and May's US$137 million. The BCRA has strung together 16 consecutive sessions with a net buying balance, but the pace of accumulation has notably slowed.
Wholesale Dollar: The AR$1,500 Zone as a Reference
The wholesale dollar rose 0.13% and closed at AR$1,499, after touching AR$1,500 highs during the session. Over the week, it accumulated a gain of AR$11.50, recovering from the AR$11 drop of the previous week.
The official retail exchange rate held steady at AR$1,515 at Banco Nación. The MEP (a dollar obtained through buying and selling government bonds) rose 0.70% to AR$1,535.08, while the 'contado con liquidación' (CCL, a dollar accessed via stock market operations) advanced 0.45% to AR$1,589.89. The informal 'blue' dollar closed stable at AR$1,550, with a 3.40% gap against the wholesale rate.
Rising Rates: The Cost of Maintaining Stability
The exchange rate dynamics were accompanied by higher interest rates. The TAMAR (a reference rate for fixed-term deposits in Argentina) rose from 25.19% to 26.50%, while the BADLAR (another benchmark rate for deposits over AR$1 million) advanced from 23% to 24.31%. This movement confirms that the money market is operating with tight liquidity and that the cost of pesos has become key to sustaining stability.
In futures contracts, the implied rate for August stood at 1.83% monthly (21.91% annualized) and for September at 1.87% monthly (22.42% annualized), suggesting expectations of a moderate slide in the exchange rate.
Country Risk: Two Sides of the Same Coin
While reserves reached their peak, country risk showed mixed dynamics. On Thursday, August 20, the JP Morgan indicator closed at 532 points, marking its third consecutive rise and its highest level since May. However, on Friday, August 21, the trend reversed: country risk fell 4.9% to 506 basis points, snapping a streak of 13 consecutive gains, according to market data.
As reported by Infobae, on Thursday the BCRA had made the largest purchase of the month (US$89 million), pushing reserves to US$50.342 billion. On Friday, with the rise in gold, the stock climbed to US$50.655 billion, the highest level since September 6, 2019, when it stood at US$50.952 billion.
Context and Outlook
The economic team set a 2026 target of accumulating between US$10 billion and US$17 billion in reserves, a goal the BCRA already met in early June. Even so, analysts do not rule out purchases reaching US$17 billion, which would be key for Finance Minister Luis Caputo's program and as firepower in the face of potential pre-election tensions.
The official strategy combines moderate purchases, firmer rates, and intervention in futures markets to prevent the wholesale exchange rate from spiraling above AR$1,500. But this approach comes with a trade-off: reduced accumulation capacity. The market is closely watching whether the Central Bank can sustain its pace in the coming weeks.
Sources: Ámbito Finanzas | Infobae | El Cronista | La Prensa