The Argentine financial market experienced a day of contrasts this Monday, August 24, 2026. While stocks and bonds showed signs of recovery, the wholesale dollar hit a new all-time high and country risk remained above 500 points, reflecting political uncertainty ahead of the 2027 elections.
Country Risk: Unable to Break Below 500 Points
The JP Morgan Emerging Markets Bond Index, known as country risk, closed at 509 basis points, up 2 to 4 units from Friday. During the morning, it touched a low of 499 but failed to consolidate below that level. This behavior ran counter to the trend in emerging markets, as the EMB index improved by 0.14%.
The rise in Argentina's country risk is partly explained by the external context: rising US Treasury bond yields and the conflict between the US and Iran, which pushed Brent crude oil prices above USD 91.
Wholesale Dollar: Record High and Surpasses $1,500
The wholesale dollar closed at $1,510, up $11 (0.7%), surpassing the $1,500 barrier for the first time. This is a nominal historical high. Operator Gustavo Quintana from PR noted: “With today's rise, the highest for a Monday in several weeks, the wholesale dollar reaches new historical highs.”
Nicolás Merino from ABC Mercado de Cambios added: “In the last hour, the balance broke and the dollar climbed until reaching a maximum of $1,510, a level at which the wholesale market finally closed. Thus, it consolidates as the highest value of the month and the year.”
The official dollar at Banco Nación rose $10 (1%) and closed at $1,530 for sale. The blue dollar advanced $10 (0.6%) to $1,560. The Contado con Liquidación (CCL) stood at $1,602.94 (+0.4%), while the MEP was offered at $1,538.43.
The upper band of the exchange rate regime is at $1,871.95, leaving the wholesale dollar 24% below that limit.
Argentine Stocks: Technical Rebound on Wall Street and the Merval
Argentine stocks trading on Wall Street (ADRs) had a positive session, with gains of up to 8.2%. The main winners were:
- Banco Supervielle: +8.2%
- Edenor: +5.4%
- Banco Macro: +5.2%
- BBVA: +5.1%
- Grupo Financiero Galicia: +4.8%
This rebound is attributed to a “technical bounce” after the losses accumulated in August, which averaged a decline of nearly 10%.
In the local market, the S&P Merval index rose 2.8% in pesos, closing at 2,995,129 points. In dollars, it advanced 3.2% to 1,883.99 points.
Central Bank Buys Dollars and Reserves Keep Growing
The Central Bank of the Argentine Republic (BCRA) purchased USD 11 million in the spot market, representing 2.1% of private supply. Gross international reserves grew by USD 121 million, reaching USD 50,776 million, the highest stock since September 6, 2019.
Eyes on 2027: Market Prices in Higher Electoral Risk
The market is already looking at the 2027 electoral scenario. The forward rate between 2027 and 2028 rose to 15% annually, indicating a higher perception of post-election risk. The probability of default in one year is 2.8%, but rises to 30.3% in four years and 61.5% in ten years.
Pablo Lazzati, CEO of Insider Finance, explained: “The market is already starting to look at the electoral scenario... the market does not currently identify an opposition figure that clearly appears capable of surpassing that level.”
Alejo Costa from Max Capital added: “We are in a risk-off environment, and in Argentina there are local factors working against it, particularly a feeling that the 2027 election may be closer than previously thought.”
Upcoming Key Events
The focus will be on Nvidia's results (Wednesday, August 26) and the US PCE inflation data, which could influence the global market and, consequently, Argentine assets.
In summary, the day left a bittersweet taste: on one hand, the rebound in stocks and the BCRA's dollar purchases; on the other, the persistence of country risk above 500 points and political uncertainty ahead of 2027.