On Thursday, September 4, 2026, Argentine financial markets once again demonstrated their resilience. While Wall Street experienced declines due to mixed employment data and concerns over Donald Trump's trade policies, Argentine sovereign bonds and local stocks managed to stay in positive territory or with minimal losses, consolidating a trend that investors are celebrating.
Country risk: new two-week low
The index compiled by JP Morgan, which measures Argentina's financing cost premium over US Treasury bonds, fell 6 basis points to 490, the lowest level since August 17. This marks the fourth consecutive decline and a cumulative contraction of 3.7% over the past month. This indicator, which exceeded 1,900 points in 2020, reflects growing investor confidence in the country's economic trajectory.
Bonds: widespread gains
Sovereign bonds traded positively both locally and abroad. On average, dollar-denominated bonds (Bonares and Globales) rose 0.4%, with the Global 2030 leading gains with an advance of +1.1% in the domestic market. On Wall Street, gains reached up to 0.45%.
In pesos, the outlook was even more encouraging: inflation-linked bonds (CER) climbed +1.45%, dual bonds +1.1%, TAMAR +1.2%, and Boncap +0.8%. Only dollar-linked bonds fell 0.5%, in line with exchange rate stability.
Stocks: slight dip, but best week in two months
The S&P Merval index closed with a 0.3% decline in pesos (to 3,049,122 points) and 0.5% in dollars (US$ 1,914). However, on the week it is up +2.5% in pesos and nearly +4% in dollars, the best performance in two months.
Among leading stocks, results were mixed: Globant fell 3%, Banco Francés 1.8%, while Bioceres advanced 3.5% and Cresud 1.9%. On the weekly balance, standouts included Cresud (+8.3%), Loma Negra (+3.5%), YPF (+3.2%), Galicia (+3.1%), Supervielle (+2.9%), and Banco Macro (+2%).
Dollar: calm and minimal gap
The exchange market showed notable stability. The official dollar closed at AR$ 1,529.42, down AR$ 5.94; the blue dollar rose just AR$ 5 to AR$ 1,545; the MEP traded at AR$ 1,528.20 (-AR$ 5.78) and the CCL at AR$ 1,594.50 (+AR$ 0.03). The wholesale rate remained around AR$ 1,508. The gap between the official and blue rates is only 1%, and between CCL and wholesale, 6%, levels that reflect strong confidence in the exchange rate scheme.
Reserves: seven-year record
The Central Bank purchased between US$ 15 and 23 million during the session, and gross reserves reached US$ 50.8 billion, the highest level in seven years, very close to the historical record of US$ 50.912 billion. This reserve cushion is key to sustaining financial stability.
External context: mixed Wall Street, strong employment
In the United States, the Dow Jones fell 0.25%, the S&P 500 0.38%, and the Nasdaq 0.29%. August employment data showed the creation of 162,000 jobs, well above the 55,000 expected, and an unemployment rate of 4.1%. This reinforces the idea that the Fed could keep rates high for longer, although official Christopher Waller recommended not moving them at the September 16 meeting.
Brent oil rose 0.4% to US$ 95.94, with a weekly gain of nearly 9%, while gold fell 1.3% on the week and Bitcoin advanced 5.2% to US$ 81,200. The 10-year Treasury yield stood at 4.77%.
Why are Argentine assets resisting?
Several factors explain this strength. First, a Citi report notes that the market exaggerates political risk and that macroeconomic fundamentals have not worsened. Additionally, the support of US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent for Argentina's economic program, and the record harvest of 150 million tons with the best grain prices in 43 months, underpin expectations. A record trade surplus for 2026 is projected, and August inflation is estimated at 1.6-1.7% monthly (21.2% accumulated over 8 months).
President Javier Milei reiterated: “We are not going to change anything. Monetary policy will remain restrictive.” Meanwhile, the August tender released AR$ 500 billion and short-term rates are around 20% TNA.
In this context, the Ciclo Nova fund (from IEB) yielded 16.38% in dollars over one year, tripling the T-Bills reference (4-4.5%). Analysts recommend overweighting banks over energy for September.
Monday, September 7, is a holiday in the US for Labor Day, so operations were brought forward. The positive trend in Argentine assets seems to have solid foundations, although investors remain cautious amid external volatility.