14/06/2026 21:55 - Economia
Gráfico financiero profesional con tendencias de tasas de interés y precios del petróleo en colores azul corporativo y dorado, estilo moderno y limpio
Investment bank Goldman Sachs revised its macroeconomic projections, arguing that the US Federal Reserve would postpone any interest rate cuts until 2027, as reported by specialized media on June 14, 2026.
The decision is based on persistent inflationary pressures in the US economy and a labor market that retains some strength, reducing the margin for looser monetary moves in the short term.
For Argentina, this scenario presents mixed implications. On one hand, higher rates in the US often hinder capital flows to emerging markets. However, the local context shows positive indicators:
The international price of oil also plays a key role in forecasts. According to data from June 13, 2026:
The Third Gulf War, started on Feb 28, 2026, maintains pressure on prices, though the peace agreement announced by Donald Trump for June 14, 2026, could stabilize markets.
The BCRA accumulated over USD 10.6 billion in net purchases during 2026, surpassing the annual goal of USD 10 billion in 107 consecutive buying sessions. This is the second-best historical record.
The improvement in the S&P credit rating from CCC+ to B- unlocks restrictions for institutional funds, expanding the potentially enabled capital from USD 150-250 billion to over USD 300 billion.
Summary: Goldman Sachs anticipates the Fed will keep rates high until 2027, creating a challenging context for emerging markets. However, Argentina shows favorable indicators with country risk at lows, controlled inflation, and recovering reserves.
Alfredo S. Quiroga
