31/07/2026 13:02 - Economia
After three consecutive months of decline in the Consumer Price Index (CPI) — from 3.4% in March to 2.6% in April, 2.5% in May, and a remarkable 1.9% in June 2026 — July shows a slight resistance. However, private projections maintain optimism, placing the price variation between 1.9% and 2.1%, confirming the consolidation of economic stability.
The National Institute of Statistics and Censuses (Indec) will release the official figure on Thursday, August 13, 2026. In the meantime, early surveys act as a precise X-ray of household economics.
Various economic research centers agree on a stable scenario. The Market Expectations Survey (REM), prepared by the Central Bank of Argentina, anticipated 2.0%, while the average annual projection stands at an encouraging 22.3%.
| Consulting Firm / Organization | July 2026 CPI Estimate |
|---|---|
| Analytica | 1.9% |
| LCG | 1.9% – 2.0% |
| EconViews | 2.0% |
| EcoGo | 2.1% |
| Fundación Libertad y Progreso | 2.1% |
| REM (Central Bank of Argentina) | 2.0% |
The food and beverages category has the greatest impact on the CPI. According to a report by consulting firm LCG, the last week of July saw a jump of 0.7%, bringing the monthly accumulated to 3.4% and the four-week moving average to 2.7%.
The products that led the monthly increases were dairy and eggs with 4.1%, followed by meats (3.8%) and breads, cereals, and pasta (3.5%). Vegetables also showed pressure with 3.2%, highlighting a 7.7% spike in one of the weeks measured by Analytica. On the other hand, meats and derivatives retreated in the last week of the month (-0.7%), helping to balance the overall average.
The slight stagnation in July is explained by temporary and external dynamics. On one hand, winter holidays boosted demand for recreational, cultural, and gastronomic services. On the other, volatility in the international price of Brent crude oil — which hovered around 90 USD due to tensions in the Middle East — put pressure on fuel prices. A report from consulting firm Empiria noted that if the barrel were to climb to 100 USD, local gasoline would need to absorb a 12.4% increase, impacting the CPI by 0.56 percentage points.
On the local front, the official exchange rate closed July with a slight 1% rise at Banco Nación (around 1,510 Argentine pesos per US dollar), which also contributes a small statistical drag on prices, though fully controlled within the exchange rate bands.
Despite July's pause, economists expect prices to resume the disinflation path. For December 2026, the monthly variation is estimated to reach 1.8%. A study by the Center for Financial Research at the Torcuato Di Tella University (UTDT), conducted in July on 1,000 respondents, showed that the median 12-month inflation expectation remained stable at 30%, reflecting growing public confidence in the stability of the Argentine peso.
Alfredo S. Quiroga
