31/07/2026 15:48 - Economia
Argentina enters the second half of 2026 with a fascinating agricultural situation: an exceptional harvest, but an atypical sales pattern that promises to energize the economy in the coming months. According to reports from the Fundación Mediterránea, the strategic retention of soybean sales could become the main driver of reactivation and foreign currency generation for the country.
As of July 15, 2026, producers had sold with a fixed price 58.2 million tons of soybeans, corn, and wheat from the 2025/26 campaign. This volume exceeds the historical median of the last 16 years by 20%. However, the details reveal two opposing stories:
While corn has already marketed 38% of its harvest and wheat 65%, soybeans have barely reached 29.4% of its estimated production of 49.7 million tons, well below the usual 41.2%. This delay is not a symptom of crisis, but a smart financial decision by producers.
The key factor lies in retenciones (export taxes). Currently, soybeans are taxed at 24%, compared to 8.5% for corn and 5.5% for wheat. The national government announced a gradual reduction schedule: the soybean rate will drop 0.25 percentage points per month during 2027 and 0.5 points per month in 2028, reaching 21% by end of 2027 and 15% by December 2028.
Additionally, with reference FOB prices near 470 USD per ton for July and 488 USD for December, storing grain in on-farm silos is highly profitable. Good cereal harvests allowed producers to cover their cash needs, giving them the luxury to wait for better prices and lower taxes for the oilseed.
The Banco Central de la República Argentina (BCRA), led by Santiago Bausili, could be the big beneficiary. An accelerated soybean liquidation would strengthen international reserves, which already stand at around 49.2 billion USD. This flow of foreign currency gives the government breathing room to maintain a stable exchange rate and continue its economic deregulation process.
| Scenario | Tons to Sell | Gross Producer Income (USD) | Export Value (USD) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Continuity (keeps slow pace) | 44.7 million | $11.592 billion | $14.252 billion |
| Convergence (returns to median) | +6.6 million extra | +$2.289 billion | +$3.000 billion |
| Advancement (full acceleration) | 57.9 million | $15.313 billion | $18.380 billion |
Source: IERAL - Fundación Mediterránea. Projections for the second half of 2026.
The El Niño climate phenomenon left a record harvest exceeding 130 million tons. Although the economic activity index (EMAE) showed slight contractions in April and May, the liquidity bomb represented by retained soybeans promises to reactivate transportation, storage, industry, and services in productive regions. Argentina's agricultural sector once again proves to be the reliable engine of the national economy, ready to accelerate when conditions are optimal.
Original sources: Bichos de Campo, Infobae, Clarín Rural.
Alfredo S. Quiroga
