Grain Markets React with Optimism to Tight Supplies
In a dynamic international context, agricultural commodity prices experienced a significant rebound on August 12, 2026. Two key factors might drive this bullish trend: logistical tension in the Black Sea and a report by the United States Department of Agriculture (USDA) that surprised the market with favorable data for producers.
The Black Sea Conflict
According to specialized media, Ukraine launched a drone attack against the Russian port city of Novorossiysk, one of the most important in the region. The attack, which unfortunately left three fatalities, could paralyze operations at export terminals right in the middle of Russia's export campaign.
Dmitry Medvedev, Deputy Chairman of the Russian Security Council, reportedly warned about the possibility of attacking merchant ships in neutral waters. This generates uncertainty but also raises the demand for safety guarantees for shipments. Russia and Ukraine are the world's main suppliers of wheat and sunflower oil.
Read more about the attack at Bichos de CampoThe Bullish USDA Report
On the other hand, the USDA's World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates (WASDE) report might prove very positive for the market. The agency reportedly reduced final US corn stocks from 51.31 million to 49.40 million tons, a lower figure than expected by private analysts.
Experts like Mariela Brandolin and Dante Romano noted that lower yields and increased exports could leave a tight stock-to-consumption ratio. Furthermore, they indicated that high temperatures might be affecting the production potential of the European Union.
Read full analysis at Clarín RuralInternational and Local Prices Table
| Commodity / Market | Variation | Final Price (US$ per ton) |
|---|---|---|
| Wheat (Chicago) | +3.5% (+US$ 8.17) | US$ 239.82 |
| Corn (Chicago) | +4.63% (+US$ 7.97) | US$ 179.91 |
| Soybean Meal (Chicago) | +US$ 8.38 | US$ 342.8 |
| Soybeans (Chicago) | +US$ 5.52 | US$ 428.16 |
| Wheat available (Argentina local market) | No changes | US$ 220 |
| Corn available (Argentina local market) | Stable | US$ 180 |
Extra Context: What is EUDR?
Analysts also suggest keeping an eye on the EUDR (European Union Deforestation Regulation), a rule that would ban imports of agricultural products from deforested areas. Although its implementation was postponed in recent years, if activated in the second half of 2026, it could trigger a wave of early purchases that would further boost prices, opening a horizon of opportunities for the agribusiness sector.
Sources consulted: Clarín Rural and Bichos de Campo (August 12 and 13, 2026). Prices expressed in US dollars.