Argentina's National Institute of Statistics and Censuses (INDEC) released the Consumer Price Index (CPI) for July on Thursday, August 13, showing a 2.1% monthly increase—breaking a three-month streak of slowing inflation. With this figure, prices have risen 19.3% so far this year and 33.8% over the last twelve months.
The result aligned with market forecasts: the Central Bank's Market Expectations Survey (REM) projected 2% for the month, while the top-10 most accurate forecasters anticipated 1.9%.
Category Breakdown
The category with the highest increase was Recreation and Culture (5%), driven by higher prices for tour packages and cultural services during the winter school break. It was followed by Restaurants and Hotels (2.8%).
On the other end, Clothing and Footwear fell 1.3%—the largest nominal drop in the entire national CPI series, which began in January 2017, according to Economy Minister Luis Caputo. Alcoholic Beverages and Tobacco (1.5%) also showed a moderate rise.
Food and Non-Alcoholic Beverages rose 2%, while seasonal prices climbed 4.5% due to increases in vegetables, tour packages, and accommodation services. Regulated prices advanced 2.1%, reflecting higher public transport fares, private health insurance premiums, and electricity bills.
Core Inflation and Buenos Aires City Data
Core inflation—which excludes seasonal and regulated items—was 1.8%, two-tenths above June's reading. The statistics agency noted that a drop in building maintenance fees, following the removal of a temporary 20% surcharge added in June, helped moderate this indicator.
The national figure came after Buenos Aires City reported a 2.9% inflation rate for July last Friday, which had raised alarms within the government and financial markets.
Government Response
"We're doing very well," Economy Minister Luis Caputo said yesterday at the Córdoba Stock Exchange, noting that it took Chile a decade to bring inflation down to single digits. After the CPI release, Caputo highlighted the "significant seasonality at this time of year" in certain sectors, especially tourism, and stressed that "the three-month moving average of the national CPI fell 0.2 points compared to June, the lowest since September last year."
Context: From March to July
Since late 2025 and into the first quarter of this year, prices accelerated, peaking at 3.4% in March. The Economy Ministry attributes this acceleration to exchange rate volatility following the September provincial election in Buenos Aires and government setbacks in Congress. Other economists add the disorderly unwinding of LEFI (Central Bank liquidity instruments) and the government's initial decision not to accumulate reserves—a policy reversed in late 2025.
From March's peak, inflation slowed to 2.6% in April, 2.1% in May, and 1.9% in June, when it dipped below the 2% threshold.
Analyst Expectations
Most economic consultancies and banks expect inflation will not reach 0% in August—as the government promised—but will instead hover around 1.8%, remaining slightly below 2% monthly through January next year.
"Inflation accelerated slightly in July, in line with market expectations. The data isn't surprising: Buenos Aires City inflation had already anticipated the national result," said Santiago Casas, chief economist at EcoAnalytics. "The data confirms again that the disinflation process will be slow and uneven. Seasonality plays an important role, and July proved it once more."
"August will probably be lower once the seasonal effect passes. What we've seen in the first week of August is a lot of calm; food and beverages, and even vegetables that had risen, are now moderating," said Camilo Tiscornia, director of C&T Economic Advisors.
The consensus among private analysts projects 29.8% inflation for all of 2026, slightly below 2025's 31.5%. The government's budget had estimated 10.1% for year-end.
Controversy at INDEC
Workers at ATE INDEC (the state workers' union at the statistics bureau) questioned the CPI release in a statement: "The publication of the July 2026 CPI finds us facing a critical social situation," they said, criticizing state worker adjustments and the freeze on updating the CPI methodology.
Earlier this year, the government blocked an update to the CPI based on the latest household spending survey, leading to the resignation of Marco Lavagna, then INDEC's director. The IMF said in its latest report that the methodology behind the official inflation figure is outdated and that a new law is needed to regulate the agency.
For context: the previous government of Alberto Fernández and Cristina Kirchner closed 2023 with the highest inflation (211.4%) in over three decades, with cumulative inflation during that administration exceeding 1000%.