In July 2026, Argentina's consumer price index (CPI) rose 2.1% month-on-month, according to the national statistics agency INDEC. This breaks a three-month streak of slowing inflation (June was 1.9%) and raises concerns about persistent price pressures. The year-to-date figure reached 19.3%, while the annual rate hit 33.8%.
But beneath this official number lies a methodological controversy: what would the CPI have shown if INDEC had used the updated consumption basket based on the National Household Expenditure Survey (ENGHo) 2017/18 instead of the current one from 2004/05, which the government chose to keep in January?
Official Data: Breakdown and Categories
Core inflation rose 1.8%, seasonal prices advanced 4.5%, and regulated prices increased 2.1%. The highest increase was in Recreation and culture (5.0%), followed by Restaurants and hotels (2.8%). In contrast, Clothing and footwear fell 1.3% – the biggest drop on record, according to Economy Minister Luis Caputo.
Regionally, the Greater Buenos Aires (GBA) area had the highest inflation at 2.3%, while Patagonia, NEA, NOA, and the Pampas each recorded 2%, and Cuyo 1.9%.
The New Basket Debate: How Much Higher Would Inflation Be?
In January 2026, INDEC had planned to replace the basket from the 2004 survey with one based on the ENGHo 2017/18, a more recent reflection of consumption patterns. However, the change was shelved, and the government decided to keep the old structure.
Two private consulting firms ran simulations to estimate what July inflation would have been with the new basket:
| Consultancy | Monthly inflation (July) | Year-to-date 2026 |
|---|---|---|
| LCG | 2.5% | 21.3% |
| Equilibra | 2.1% (same as official) | 20.5% |
The difference lies in the weighting of categories. The updated basket would give more weight to services: Housing would rise from 9.4% to 14.5%, Transport from 11% to 14.3%, and Communications from 2.8% to 5.1%. Conversely, Food and beverages would drop from 26.9% to 22.7%.
In July, services rose 3.1% while goods only 1.6%, explaining why a basket with more services yields a higher number. According to LCG, inflation with the new basket would have been 2.5% in July and 21.3% for the year. Equilibra, however, argues the monthly figure would remain at 2.1%, but the annual would be higher at 20.5%.
Criticism of Methodology and Impact on Wages
The decision to keep the old basket is not without controversy. Opposition sectors and social organizations claim the methodology 'deliberately understates the impact of services', hiding a more severe situation for workers' pockets.
According to data from Prensa Obrera, the Basic Food Basket (CBA) rose 2.6% in July, with a 37.4% year-on-year increase. The Total Basic Basket (CBT) rose 2.2% to 36.1% year-on-year, exceeding $1,564,000. This means essential foods became more expensive than the general average, hitting lower-income households harder.
Regarding wages, May data shows that registered workers fell behind inflation, with a real loss of 3.4% year-on-year (2.9% in the private sector and 4.3% in the public sector). Since November 2023, the accumulated loss reaches 8.7% on average, with a near 18% drop for state employees.
August Projections and Domestic Consumption
Claudio Caprarulo, director of consultancy Analítica, projected August inflation at around 2.1%, according to statements to La Voz En Vivo. This would represent an acceleration from July, explained by seasonal factors like winter break and higher fresh produce prices due to weather.
Caprarulo warned that although the first week of August showed stability in food and beverages, 'breaking the 2% monthly floor remains the government's main technical and political challenge.' For the end of the year, projections place year-on-year inflation near 30%.
The economist also highlighted the weakness of the domestic market: supermarket consumption continues to fall, and although e-commerce is at record levels, online channels still represent less than 5% of the total. 'If employment doesn't grow, wages fall, and credit declines, it's hard for overall consumption to rise,' he concluded.
Investment also fell again in the second quarter, both in local machinery production and imports, a worrying sign for the future. For the 2027 election year, increased exchange-rate volatility is expected due to typical dollarization tendencies.
Sources: