The Argentine market is experiencing a day of euphoria. This Friday, September 4, 2026, the country risk broke through the 500-basis-point threshold again, settling at 491-495 basis points, the lowest level since August 17. This indicator, compiled by JP Morgan, measures the extra yield investors demand to hold Argentine debt compared to US Treasury bonds. The lower the number, the lower the perceived risk and the greater the confidence in the country.
The official dollar, meanwhile, closed on Thursday, September 3, at 1,530 pesos at Banco Nación, down 5 pesos in a single day. This decline comes amid purchases by the Central Bank, which acquired US$15 million in the market, lifting gross reserves to US$50.8 billion.
Bonds Rise and Stocks Climb
Dollar-denominated sovereign bonds (Bonares and Globales) are trading with gains of up to 0.7% and 0.8%, reflecting improved risk perception. In the stock market, the S&P Merval index of the Buenos Aires Stock Exchange is up 0.3% in pesos, to 3,067,302 points. Measured in dollars, it advances 0.6%, to 1,936 units.
On Wall Street, Argentine ADRs and stocks are mostly higher, with standouts such as Telecom Argentina (+3.2% to +3.4%), IRSA (+1.7% to +2.4%), and Loma Negra (+1.6%). This rebound contrasts with Thursday, September 3, when Argentine stocks in New York had closed lower: YPF -2.8%, Cresud -2.7%, Loma Negra -2.6%, and Telecom -2.2%.
What's Driving This Optimism?
Several factors are behind this improvement. First, the US employment report for August showed the creation of 162,000 jobs, well above the 55,000 expected, while the unemployment rate held at 4.1%. This data strengthens the global economy and reduces fears of a recession.
Additionally, a report from Citi bank, cited by Reuters, notes that the market exaggerates political risk ahead of the 2027 elections and that macroeconomic fundamentals have not worsened. This view contrasts with the uncertainty that electoral calendars usually generate.
On the other hand, US President Donald Trump threatened to impose trade embargoes on countries with deficits, pressuring the Federal Reserve to cut interest rates. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent is expected to begin buying Treasury bonds on September 9 to reduce long-term rates, which could benefit emerging markets.
Financial Dollars and Outlook
In the foreign exchange market, the CCL dollar (Contado con Liquidación) closed Thursday at 1,588.50 pesos, while the MEP dollar (Mercado Electrónico de Pagos) stood at 1,528.13 pesos. These exchange rates are used by companies and investors to legally dollarize, and their evolution is key to measuring devaluation expectations.
The drop in country risk and exchange rate stability are positive signals for the Argentine economy, which seeks to consolidate a recovery path. However, analysts recommend caution, as markets can be volatile and external factors, such as Fed monetary policy, remain decisive.
With information from TN.