The US economy is facing a perfect storm. The cost of diesel and oil, driven by the conflict between Iran and Russia, is pushing the CPI upward, while the Federal Reserve prepares for a new interest rate adjustment in a decisive election year.

Inflationary pressure in the United States has found a dangerous fuel: diesel. This key input has suffered a brutal increase of more than 75% since the conflict between Iran and Russia broke out, directly impacting logistics and the cost of living.

Key Fact: The barrel of oil has already exceeded the 105 dollar barrier, dragging with it the price of regular gasoline, which has risen more than 45% since late February.

This scenario hits particularly hard the agricultural states of Kansas, Iowa, and Texas, Republican strongholds that today suffer the direct impact of energy costs in their fields.

Impact on Prices and Consumption

It is not just energy. Inflation has seeped into technological and automotive sectors, creating a domino effect on the consumer's pocket:

  • Technology: New Apple iPhones rose between 10% and 14%, while the expansion of AI data centers drove up the price of memory chips.
  • Automotive: Used vehicles rose 0.5%, new ones 0.2%, and auto insurance 0.2%.
  • Wages: Wage growth lagged behind, recording barely 3% in September.
Projections and Financial Measures

The market nervously awaits the Consumer Price Index (CPI) report this Wednesday, a vital piece of data for calculating Social Security benefits and defining the economic roadmap before November.

Indicator Value / Projection
Expected Annual Inflation 3.7% (vs 3.4% in August)
Expected Monthly Inflation 0.6%
Fed Rate Hike (Year-to-date) 2.5%

Faced with this panorama, the Federal Reserve maintains its restrictive stance. After having raised rates by 2.5% this year, the organization's officials already anticipate a new hike, likely for the month of December, seeking to curb the escalation of prices despite the steady spending rate reported by banking CEOs.

Source: IMAGO