The US economy faces a new challenge. The most recent data reveal that inflationary pressures are not just a passing effect of the energy crisis derived from the conflict in Iran, but are leaking into key sectors of consumption.
The Consumer Price Index (CPI) showed a worrying acceleration, moving from an increase of 0.4% in August to 0.6% in September. In annual terms, the figure climbed to 3.7%, exceeding the 3.4% recorded the previous month.
| Indicator | Monthly Variation (Sep) | Annual Variation |
|---|---|---|
| General CPI | +0.6% | 3.7% |
| Core CPI (excluding food/energy) | +0.3% | 2.6% |
| Fuels | +9% | - |
| Housing | +0.4% | - |
| Used Cars | +0.7% | - |
The main engine of this jump was energy, but the alarm sounds louder due to persistent inflation in services. The items that put the most pressure on prices were:
- Fuels: Represented more than half of the monthly increase.
- Air travel: Tickets rose by 1.2% due to the cost of fuel.
- Housing and Vehicles: Rental costs and used cars continued their upward trend.
This situation places the Federal Reserve (Fed) in an uncomfortable position. Although some officials doubted the urgency of raising rates, the market has already adjusted its expectations: the probability of a quarter-point increase for the October 27-28 meeting jumped from 22.1% to 47%.
The final impact falls on the worker. For the sixth consecutive month, inflation exceeded wage growth, causing median real earnings to decrease by 0.5% in September and 0.7% in the annual comparison.
Source: IMAGO