15/06/2026 16:11 - Internacionales
Centro de votación en Colombia con urnas electorales, ciudadanos haciendo fila para votar, banderas colombianas y carteles de candidatos presidenciales en un día electoral
On Sunday, June 21, 2026, Colombian voters will choose between two sharply opposing political projects. Abelardo de la Espriella represents the far-right movement "Defensores de la Patria" (Defenders of the Homeland), a coalition opposed to the current progressive government. Iván Cepeda is the candidate of Pacto Histórico (Historic Pact), the left-wing coalition that brought current President Gustavo Petro to power in 2022, marking the first time a leftist politician won Colombia's presidency.
Gustavo Petro, Colombia's current president, made history as the first left-wing head of state in the country's modern history. His government has implemented progressive reforms but faced significant opposition from conservative sectors. The Pacto Histórico is a broad left-wing coalition that includes former guerrilla members, social movements, and progressive politicians.
Defensores de la Patria represents a right-wing reaction to Petro's policies, bringing together traditional political elites, former President Álvaro Uribe's supporters, and conservative sectors who oppose peace agreements with armed groups and progressive social reforms.
| Candidate | Vote Intention |
|---|---|
| Abelardo de la Espriella | 52.6% |
| Iván Cepeda | 45.0% |
| Blank vote | 2.4% |
Margin of error: 2.9% | Sample: 2,073 citizens | Period: June 8-12, 2026
| Candidate | Vote Intention |
|---|---|
| Abelardo de la Espriella | 48.6% |
| Iván Cepeda | 44.7% |
| Blank vote | 6.7% |
Sample: 2,186 people | Published in Cambio magazine | Difference within margin of error (technical tie)
Celag Results:
Sample: 2,046 people
Criticisms from Statistician Hanwen Zhang:
In the first round on May 31, 2026, Abelardo de la Espriella won 43.78% of votes (over 10 million), defeating Iván Cepeda who received 40.98%. Neither candidate exceeded the 50% required to avoid a runoff.
Growth since May: According to Guarumo/Ecoanalítica, De la Espriella rose 9 points from the hypothetical May scenario, while Cepeda advanced 5 points. The National Consulting Center indicates De la Espriella gained 5 points and Cepeda 3.8 points.
President Gustavo Petro shared Celag's results on social media and called for electoral mobilization: "The polls show a technical tie, and when that happens, people must come out from every corner of the country to vote, and we must protect the vote." He requested the registration of one million people and provided detailed instructions for electoral oversight.
The Celag director identifies these decisive factors:
Methodological Note: Under Colombian law, poll margins of error must be below 3%. The nearly 4-point difference in the CNC poll could be considered a statistical tie if the margins of error for each candidate overlap. In Colombia's polarized political climate, polls can shift rapidly based on voter mobilization efforts.
Alfredo S. Quiroga
