A Deadline That Expired Without Agreement
The Monday, August 17, 2026 deadline of the 60-day period established in the Memorandum of Understanding signed on June 17 between Iran and the United States has passed. That document, reached in Versailles, aimed to permanently end the war and resolve the dispute over Iran's nuclear program. However, negotiations never advanced, and both parties are now further apart than at the start.
US President Donald Trump ruled out extending the temporary ceasefire. In an interview with Fox News, he stated that Iran must "wave the white flag of surrender" and that his country maintains control of the Strait of Hormuz. He even threatened to declare that maritime route as "territory of the United States."
Iran Reinforces Its Stance and Demands Conditions
The President of the Iranian Parliament and chief negotiator, Mohamad Baqer Qalibaf, insisted this Tuesday August 18 that Iran will not reopen the Strait of Hormuz until the United States fulfills its commitments. Among the conditions, he mentioned the lifting of the blockade, the release of frozen assets, the end of oil sanctions, and the cessation of military operations on all fronts, including those of Israel against Lebanon.
Qalibaf, a former Revolutionary Guard, warned that the Islamic Republic has strengthened militarily during the weeks of truce and is ready to "impose a greater defeat" on the United States. A senior Iranian official cited by Reuters stated that Tehran could execute a "timely and precise" military attack to break the US naval blockade if diplomacy fails.
The Strait of Hormuz: The Hottest Point
The Strait of Hormuz, between Iran and Oman, is one of the most strategic maritime routes in the world: before the war, one-fifth of the planet's oil and liquefied natural gas passed through it. The Memorandum of Understanding gave Iran a vague role in facilitating transit, which Tehran interpreted as a right to manage the strait and potentially charge fees. Washington rejected that interpretation.
A week after the signing of the agreement, Iran began firing on vessels using an alternative route supervised by the US along the coast of Oman. The United States responded with attacks, canceled the exemptions that allowed Iran to sell oil, and reimposed the blockade on Iranian ports. Each party accused the other of violating the pact, which today practically does not exist.
Indirect Contacts and Pakistan's Mediation
Despite the stalemate, signs of unofficial contacts emerged. According to Axios, former Director of National Intelligence Tulsi Gabbard spoke with an Iraqi Kurdish leader with ties to the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC), conveying a message to the IRGC commander, General Ahmad Vahidi. Trump confirmed this information in a phone interview with Fox News.
Trump's special envoy and son-in-law, Jared Kushner, stated that "conversations between the US government and different sectors of the Iranian government on all levels are probably stronger than ever," though he avoided giving details.
Pakistan, which mediated the June agreement, noted that the deadline expired on Monday and expressed hope that it would be extended. Foreign Ministry spokesperson Tahir Andrabi said: "We are not closing the chapter. Pakistan is making full efforts to bring the two parties to the negotiating table."
Bounties for US Soldiers and Threats to Oman
The Iranian Revolutionary Guard formalized the payment of 30,000 dollars for each captured US soldier, and 60,000 dollars if the capture is made by a woman. This measure seeks to deter a ground invasion, which Washington has avoided precisely to not expose its troops.
Trump, for his part, threatened Oman: "If Oman gets in our way, we will bomb them mercilessly," he told Fox News. Iran holds separate negotiations with Oman on managing the strait and claims they are close to an agreement.
Global Impact: Oil and Economy
Transit through Hormuz, which increased after the provisional agreement, has fallen again to a small fraction of pre-war levels. Oil prices have risen above USD 90 per barrel amid uncertainty. The Iranian economy suffers from soaring inflation and the risk of anti-government protests grows, like those that were repressed in January.
Meanwhile, Iran-backed Houthi rebels in Yemen have begun attacking Saudi oil tankers in the Red Sea, threatening another crucial trade route. International analyst Andrés Repetto, in dialogue with LN+, warned that "some analysts speak of the possibility that what we have seen so far is the calm before the storm" and that Iran is preparing for a larger offensive.
The war between the United States and Iran began on February 28, 2026 with attacks by Washington and Israel against Iranian territory. Since then, the conflict has spread to several fronts, with economic and humanitarian consequences throughout the region.