A Frozen Chessboard: Same Players, Same Strategies
As if a starting gun had been fired, Argentina's two main political poles began moving within 48 hours, with their eyes set on the 2027 elections. On Monday, Karina Milei spoke by phone with Mauricio Macri; on Tuesday, Axel Kicillof, Sergio Massa, and Máximo Kirchner met at a hotel in the Retiro neighborhood of Buenos Aires. But far from representing a breath of fresh air, both moves functioned like a mirror game: perceiving a threat, each side retreated into its past alliances without resolving any of its internal differences.
The danger looming over them is not the opposing pole, but the void: social disillusionment, political disaffection, and the risk that an emerging figure could capture that trophy. According to an analysis by journalist Jorge Liotti in La Nación, “the two main political poles are preparing to offer for 2027 more or less the same options they offered in 2023. The conversation is among the same people. In four years, no alternative figure has emerged; nor have any renovating proposals.”
The Worrying Statistic: 42% Identify with No Party
A study by the Observatorio Pulsar de la UBA (University of Buenos Aires), titled “The Rise of Ningunismo,” surveyed 1,252 people nationwide and produced a striking result: 42% do not identify with any party or political space, the highest figure since 2023. The report notes that the “ningunistas” (from “ninguno,” meaning “none”) are no longer a residual category of undecided or apathetic voters, but rather the largest segment of Argentine society, cutting across ages, genders, and educational levels.
“The political center, in this context, does not necessarily express programmatic moderation or a developed ideological position. It probably functions as a refuge zone for those who do not want to place themselves within the divisions proposed by the political ecosystem,” the study warns. It is a wake-up call for a leadership that cannot articulate a legible language for a society that, in the last seven national elections, voted against the incumbent party on five occasions.
The Ruling Party: From Disruption to Pragmatism
In the Casa Rosada (the Argentine presidential palace), the goal is clear: “preserve political capital.” Those close to President Javier Milei and his sister acknowledge they have moved “from disruption to the pursuit of results.” The dialogue with the PRO party runs parallel to intensified conversations with allied governors and Radical Civic Union (UCR) leaders. Tuesday's political meeting included self-criticism over the failure of the land law and a promise of greater rigor for upcoming projects.
The rapprochement with PRO has a strategic component: Diego Santilli and Cristian Ritondo lead the pro-agreement wing, facing off against independents like María Eugenia Vidal and Silvia Lospennato. Mauricio Macri, who three months ago said he had lost all trust in Milei, has now accepted Karina Milei's conciliatory call. According to a PRO source, Macri “wants to show he is doing everything possible to reach an agreement with the libertarians.”
However, the issue of the City of Buenos Aires remains a point of friction: the government does not renounce the possibility of competing with Patricia Bullrich, Santilli, or Pilar Ramírez if they poll better than Jorge Macri's candidate.
Peronism: Forced Unity and Defense of the PASO
In the Peronist camp, Tuesday's meeting at the Hotel Emperador was a move driven mainly by Sergio Massa, whom political scientist Pablo Touzón compares to “the trustee of a bankruptcy, who talks to all sectors so the party doesn't completely fall apart.”
The five-hour meeting brought together the so-called “Group of 10”: Kicillof, Máximo Kirchner, Massa, Gerardo Zamora, Sergio Ziliotto, Gustavo Melella, Ricardo Quintela, Gildo Insfrán, José Mayans, and Germán Martínez. The central objective: defend the PASO (open, simultaneous, and mandatory primary elections), which the ruling party wants to eliminate. According to Ámbito, a new summit is planned for this Wednesday, with leaders like Emilio Monzó and Miguel Ángel Pichetto expected to join.
The relationship between Cristina Kirchner and Kicillof remains broken on a personal level. They haven't seen each other since October of last year. Kirchner has not forgiven what she considers a betrayal; Kicillof has not forgotten the sabotage of his government. However, both understand that the electoral future requires feigning harmony. Those close to the former president maintain that “the one who puts forward the presidential candidate doesn't choose the gubernatorial candidate. If Axel is the national candidate, we'll decide the province.”
Another pending issue is the rapprochement of Peronist governors who are currently tactical allies of Milei, such as Osvaldo Jaldo (Tucumán) and Raúl Jalil (Catamarca). Ricardo Quintela has already announced he will work to bring them closer to the national PJ (Justicialist Party), although the Kirchnerite faction wants to keep them at a distance.
What About the Future? Leadership Looks the Other Way
The La Nación analysis concludes that the leadership “seems to interpret social demands and dynamics very superficially and appears more focused on political endogamy. Today, the greatest challenge for the government and Peronism does not lie in competition between them, but in the chasm of disillusionment that is widening with the electorate. There is no listening, only echoes of the past.”
Meanwhile, the government remains the central protagonist of the system, but with a somewhat dimming star. The economy is growing at a rate close to 2% annually, as admitted by BCRA (Central Bank) president Santiago Bausili, and July inflation was 2.1% monthly. Polls show that 57% believe the country has worsened and 61% disapprove of Milei's management, according to a UdeSA survey.
In this scenario, the only certainty is that Argentine politics is offering a déjà vu once again: the same names, the same disputes, and a society that feels increasingly less represented. The lingering question is whether any force can step out of its comfort zone to connect with that 42% who no longer believe in anyone.