02/07/2026 15:57 - Economia
According to market reports verified on July 2, 2026, Argentina's country risk experienced a remarkable drop, settling between 417 and 421 basis points. This represents the lowest level since 2018, signaling a scenario of great optimism for the national economy.
Note for international readers: 'Country risk' is a financial indicator that measures the likelihood of a country defaulting on its sovereign debt. A lower number means international investors view the country as safer to lend to.
Sources suggest that positive global market sentiment has pushed Argentine dollar-denominated sovereign bonds, with the Global 2030 bond (debt maturing in 2030) registering increases of up to 1.4%. Similarly, the S&P Merval—the main index of the Buenos Aires Stock Exchange—advanced by 1.7%, reaching 3,176,751 points. In this context, agencies S&P and Fitch reportedly upgraded the country's credit rating to B-, consolidating investor confidence.
The 'Blue Dollar' refers to the informal, parallel exchange rate used in Argentina due to strict capital controls. The Central Bank of Argentina (BCRA) has reportedly accumulated purchases of USD 11,000 million during 2026, showing a solid reserve position that backs the national currency.
Financial data indicates that the spread over emerging markets narrowed significantly from 255 to 98 basis points. Official projections estimate that the official dollar could reach 1,653 pesos by December 2026, while inflation projected for the year would be around 29% according to private consultants.
Foreign trade also shows encouraging numbers. Between January and May 2026, the country reportedly reached a trade surplus of USD 11,783 million. For the month of July, analysts recommend dollarizing portfolios and maintaining stock market caution with rates near 25% TNA (Annual Nominal Rate), in view of the electoral uncertainty approaching for 2027. However, the current economic landscape displays indicators of solidity rarely seen in the last decade.
Source: Provided financial market data, July 2026.
Alfredo S. Quiroga
