30/06/2026 16:33 - Economia
Argentina's official exchange rate has once again touched the psychological barrier of $1,500 ARS per USD for sale at Banco Nación (Argentina's largest state-owned bank), a level not seen since October 2025. This movement represents an increase of nearly 5% during June, recovering ground after months of relative stability and erasing the carry trade gains from the past two months.
In Argentina, there's a stark difference between the official exchange rate (used for imports, exports, and certain authorized transactions) and the "blue dollar" (the parallel market rate). The official rate is regulated by the Central Bank (BCRA), while the blue rate reflects supply and demand in the informal market. The gap between them is a key indicator of economic stress in the country.
In the wholesale market, the currency closed at $1,481.50 ARS, while the blue dollar stood at $1,510-$1,515 ARS, maintaining a contained gap of only 2% relative to the official rate—a historically low spread. The Central Bank of Argentina (BCRA) continues accumulating reserves, with purchases exceeding USD 11 billion so far in 2026.
| Period | Projected Value |
|---|---|
| July 2026 | $1,504 ARS |
| December 2026 | $1,653 ARS |
| Inflation 2026 | 29% (estimated) |
| Inflation 2027 | 20% (estimated) |
Source: Futures contracts and BBVA Research projections
A survey of eight analysts revealed divided stances: three recommended buying dollars, one suggested selling, and four advised caution. This split reflects a market in transition, where signals are not entirely clear.
BUY
Gustavo Ber (Economist): Recommends increasing dollar exposure ahead of a potential gradual exchange rate strategy for the second half.
Gustavo Quintana (PR Corredores): Suggests considering seasonal demand that will likely dissipate soon.
Ian Colombo (Cocos Capital): Notes that the second half typically shows more upward momentum, with year-end expectations of $1,630-$1,650 ARS.
SELL
Juan Manuel Truffa (Outlier): Interprets the market as being at a seasonal peak and expects a downward correction in coming weeks.
CAUTION
Federico Domínguez: Favors peso interest rates over dollars, citing fiscal surplus and export boom.
Francisco Díaz Mayer: Does not recommend paying $1,500 ARS in the short term, though considers it acceptable for long-term positioning.
Juan Pazos: Detects no clear driver to buy, though wouldn't be a seller in the current scenario.
Despite the exchange rate movement, Argentina's economic fundamentals show positive signals. The accumulated trade surplus reached USD 11.783 billion in the first semester, while international reserves stand at USD 47.081 billion.
Carry trade is an investment strategy where investors borrow in a low-interest currency to invest in a high-yield one. In Argentina, this typically means holding pesos (which offer high interest rates) against the dollar. When the peso's depreciation is slower than the interest earned, investors profit. However, sudden devaluations can wipe out these gains.
The spread between interest rates and dollar depreciation favored carry trade in pesos during the first semester, with yields of 2% monthly. However, June's correction rebalanced investor expectations.
The dollar has accumulated a rise of only 2% in the first semester, well below estimated inflation, creating an attractive opportunity for those seeking positive real returns in the short term.
Alfredo S. Quiroga
