A Market in Transition: Focus on Stability and Planning
The first week of August 2026 left a landscape of adjustments for Argentine assets, which operated against the international recovery. The S&P Merval—the main stock index of the Buenos Aires Stock Exchange—closed with a 0.5% drop, settling at 3,086,785 points, marking its sixth consecutive decline. However, this movement occurs in a context of reordering where the Government prioritizes the exchange rate anchor and a restrictive monetary policy to contain price transfers.
Country Risk and Reserves: A Careful Balance
The country risk, measured by the JP Morgan index—which reflects the premium investors demand to hold Argentine debt over US Treasuries—ended the week at 451 basis points, after hitting a low of 411 points on Monday. This indicator reflects investor caution regarding domestic factors, although the solidity of the reserves of the BCRA (Central Bank of Argentina) remains a fundamental pillar. Gross international reserves rose to USD 49,455 million, thanks to the contribution of rising gold prices, marking recent historical highs.
Wall Street and Employment Data
Meanwhile, on the international front, markets experienced an upward session. The Dow Jones rose 0.3%, the S&P 500 gained 0.6%, and the Nasdaq Composite increased by 1.3%. This rebound came after it was announced that the United States lost 23,000 jobs in July, which lowered expectations for new rate hikes by the Federal Reserve.
Inflation and the Dollar: Cooling Signals
The foreign exchange market remained stable, with the wholesale dollar (the official exchange rate used for foreign trade) closing at 1,498.50 ARS and the blue dollar (the informal parallel exchange rate) at 1,525 ARS. Attention now focuses on national inflation for July, to be released on August 13. The data from CABA (Autonomous City of Buenos Aires, often an early indicator), which reached 2.9%, exceeded market expectations, but inflation implied in the bond curve shows a cooling trend going forward.
Oil and the Global Context
Oil also influenced the session, with a barrel of Brent closing at USD 82.16. The normalization of traffic through the Strait of Hormuz moderated pressure on crude, making fuel imports cheaper and generating a slightly positive balance for Argentine foreign trade. This favorable international scenario, added to the institutional reforms promoted by the Government, such as the reform of the BCRA's Charter, lays the foundations for a more stable and prosperous future.
Sources: Infobae, Ámbito, El Cronista and El Día.