July Inflation Accelerates to 2.1%
On August 13, 2026, Argentina's National Institute of Statistics and Censuses (INDEC) released the Consumer Price Index (CPI) for July, showing a monthly increase of 2.1%. This represents a 0.2 percentage point acceleration compared to June's 1.9% and breaks a three-month trend of slowing inflation. The year-to-date accumulation through July stands at 19.3%, while the annual inflation rate reaches 33.8%.
The figure aligned with private sector expectations, which had anticipated a rebound driven by seasonal items linked to winter holidays.
Which Sectors Rose and Fell
The highest increase came from Recreation and Culture (5%), followed by Restaurants and Hotels (2.8%) and Health (2.5%). On the other end, Clothing and Footwear fell 1.3%, the largest nominal drop in the entire national CPI series that began in January 2017, as highlighted by Economy Minister Luis Caputo.
By category, Core Inflation rose 1.8%, Seasonal Items jumped 4.5% (due to vegetables, tour packages, and lodging), and Regulated Prices advanced 2.1% (public transport, prepaid health plans, and electricity).
Food Prices: Top Increases and Decreases
Food and non-alcoholic beverages rose 2%, slightly below the general level. In the first seven months, this category has increased 20.1%, outpacing the overall CPI by 0.8 points.
Products with the largest price hikes in July:
- Butternut squash: +55.1%
- Potatoes: +20.8%
- Onions: +17.1%
- Lettuce: +10.9%
- Bananas: +7.6%
- Round tomatoes: +7.3%
- Dried peas (soaked): +5.4%
- Firm yogurt: +5.2%
- Sardo cheese: +5.2%
- Pudding mix: +4.6%
Meanwhile, these items saw price declines: Oranges (-7.7%), Lemons (-5.5%), Still water (-4.4%), Beef roast (-1.3%), Ground coffee (-1.1%), Beef round (-0.8%), Ground beef (-0.7%), Yerba mate (-0.6%), Eggs (-0.6%), and Whole chicken (-0.3%).
Regional Breakdown
The Greater Buenos Aires area recorded the highest inflation at 2.3%. In Patagonia, NEA, NOA, and the Pampas region, it was 2%, while Cuyo saw 1.9%. In all regions except Cuyo, food and beverages were the main contributors.
Caputo's Response and Economists' Reactions
Economy Minister Luis Caputo had anticipated that July is seasonally high. After the data release, he highlighted on X (formerly Twitter) that the three-month moving average of the national CPI fell 0.2 points compared to June, reaching its lowest level since September 2025. He also celebrated the 1.3% drop in clothing prices.
However, economist Alfredo Romano (Romano Group) called the data a 'bad number' and warned that 'going from 33% annual to single digits is not a straight downward line. It's a plateau with setbacks.' Romano recalled past failures of disinflation processes in Argentina and reiterated his support for dollarization.
Economist Gabriel Caamaño agreed that 'the best part of July's CPI was core inflation at 1.8% monthly' and that 'there's no reason for alarm,' but he sarcastically noted the government's shift in metrics: 'Now that core inflation without meat is locked in some basement in the suburbs, the three-month moving average has come out to play.'
The debate highlights two perspectives: for the Treasury, the trajectory matters; for analysts, the cost of sustaining it and the room left before exchange rate, monetary, and activity tensions filter back into prices.
What to Expect in August
According to LCG, food inflation in the first week of August was 0.6%, and the four-week average slowed to 2.5%. Eco Go projects that falling wholesale prices for fruits, vegetables, and meats could bring relief in August, which would start with a statistical carryover of 0.7% in food.
Private estimates suggest monthly inflation could range between 1.6% and 1.8% by year-end, though much depends on regulated prices and the exchange rate.
Source: INDEC and official statements.