A Projection That Shakes the Market
Pantheon Macroeconomics, the consultancy founded by economist Ian Shepherdson—dubbed by The Wall Street Journal as the world's most accurate economic forecaster—has projected that Argentina's wholesale dollar will reach 1,850 pesos by the end of December 2026. This implies an annual devaluation of roughly 27%, far above what most banks and consultancies expect.
Among the 47 international and local firms surveyed by FocusEconomics in August, Pantheon's estimate stands out as the highest for the local exchange rate. It is followed by projections from Argentine consultancies such as Invecq Consulting (1,800 pesos), LCG (1,770 pesos), and Econviews (1,750 pesos).
The general consensus among experts polled by FocusEconomics places the wholesale dollar at 1,648 pesos for December, while the futures market at Matba-Rofex trades at 1,623 pesos.
Who Is Ian Shepherdson?
Shepherdson is considered a 'guru' in the United States for having correctly anticipated several key financial scenarios. Among his most notable calls:
- 2008: Predicted the collapse of the housing market.
- 2020: Anticipated that the Federal Reserve would begin raising rates in 2022, contrary to most analysts.
- 2022: Warned that rising mortgage rates would cause a significant drop in housing demand.
He previously served as Chief US Economist at HSBC Securities in New York. Today, Pantheon Macroeconomics provides global economic intelligence to more than 500 investment funds, banks, and international institutions.
The Ceiling of the Exchange Rate Band
Pantheon's forecast approaches the ceiling of the exchange rate fluctuation band set by the Central Bank at 1,856 pesos, a level updated daily based on inflation from two months prior (t-2) and the maximum allowed without market intervention.
In contrast, MAPFRE Economics, one of the consultancies with the most accurate calls in the past two years, lowered its December expectation to 1,658 pesos, after projecting around 1,843 pesos last month.
The Debate Over Currency Lag
The gap between projected inflation and the dollar's movement is the crux of the debate. While the Central Bank's REM survey estimates 29.8% inflation for 2026 and LatinFocus projects 29.3%, the wholesale dollar would close the year around 1,650 pesos per consensus, implying a rise of just 10.8% from Friday's close of 1,487.50 pesos.
Those warning of a currency lag argue that when inflation outpaces the dollar, production costs in Argentina become more expensive in hard currency, hurting exporters and companies competing with imports. The government, however, rejects a sharp devaluation due to its impact on prices and purchasing power.
Reserves and Official Strategy
To maintain exchange rate calm, the government combines interventions in futures with the placement of dollar-linked and dual bonds. According to Ignacio Morales, Chief Investment Officer at Wise Capital, the stock of these bonds held by private investors jumped from US$3.211 billion in May to US$11.239 billion in July, an increase of nearly US$5 billion in one month.
As of August 14, 2026, the Central Bank has accumulated purchases of US$14 billion this year and maintains gross reserves near US$49.567 billion, 2.4 times higher than the lows of late 2023. Net reserves stand at approximately US$11.9 billion, a level not seen since early 2020, according to the Mediterránea Foundation.
The market does not expect a significant exchange rate jump for the remainder of 2026, but Pantheon Macroeconomics' 1,850 pesos projection serves as a warning about the risks of keeping the exchange rate lagging behind inflation.