Record July: Trade Surplus and Historic Exports
The National Institute of Statistics and Censuses (INDEC) confirmed on Thursday what the market anticipated: Argentina's trade balance recorded a surplus of USD 2.115 billion in July 2026. This result represents an improvement of USD 1.208 billion compared to the same month in 2025, extending the streak of positive trade results to 32 consecutive months—a milestone not seen in decades.
Exports totaled USD 8.854 billion, marking a record high for July with a 14.1% year-on-year increase. In the first seven months of the year, sales abroad reached USD 58.365 billion, up 22.9% from 2025. These numbers were celebrated by Economy Minister Luis Caputo, who highlighted: "Exports and the trade balance in July reached a historic record for the month."
Which Sectors Drove the Trade Balance?
| Sector | Exports (USD billions) | YoY Change | Main Driver |
|---|---|---|---|
| Fuels & Energy | 1.506 | +97.8% | Crude oil (USD 1.020 billion) and fuel |
| Agricultural Manufactures | 3.068 | +4.9% | Meat and food industry residues |
| Industrial Manufactures | 2.170 | +11.2% | Land transport equipment (pickups) |
| Primary Products | - | -0.6% | Sharp 73.7% drop in soybean |
The main engine was, without a doubt, the energy sector. Vaca Muerta is consolidating as the new export giant: crude oil generated USD 1.020 billion in foreign sales, nearly double the previous year. This result made the energy balance (chapter 27) a surplus of USD 722 million, compared to just USD 12 million in July 2025. The Neuquén formation already explains 70% of national crude oil production.
For those unfamiliar, Vaca Muerta is a massive shale oil and natural gas formation in the Patagonia region, comparable to the Permian Basin in the U.S., which has transformed Argentina from energy importer to potential exporter.
📉 Why Did Imports Decline?
On the import side, the total was USD 6.739 billion, a 1.7% contraction year-on-year. The decline was driven by a 9.2% drop in volumes, while international prices rose 8.4%.
The sectorial breakdown shows mixed signals for the real economy:
- Capital Goods: fell 7.7% in value, with a 13.1% contraction in quantities. The drop in industrial equipment suggests productive investment remains stagnant.
- Parts and accessories for capital goods: the largest absolute decline of the month (-14.9%), highlighting weak industrial traction.
- Consumer Goods: -7.3% in value, consistent with still weak domestic consumption.
- Vehicles: the sector deficit fell from USD 829 million to USD 510 million.
- Intermediate Goods (+16.5%): the positive exception, driven by soybean imports for processing and re-export.
Economist Federico Vacarezza described this as a "sandwich effect" for industry: a squeezed domestic market and external demand concentrated in a few sectors. Federico Bernini, an economist at IIEP, noted that the drop in machinery imports is directly related to weak local investment.
🌎 Trading Partners and Outlook
By block, China remains the main origin of Argentina's imports (22.5%), while Brazil is the top individual partner, with a bilateral deficit of USD 349 million. The largest surplus was recorded with the Rest of ALADI (USD 938 million) and the USMCA (USD 467 million).
Looking ahead, consulting firms are optimistic. According to LCG, projected exports for 2026 are around USD 100 billion, with a surplus potentially exceeding USD 20 billion. The Central Bank's Market Expectations Survey (REM) projects a surplus close to USD 23.4 billion for the full year.
The key to success lies in diversification: energy and mining no longer depend on agricultural seasonality. Gold, silver, and lithium are steadily adding foreign currency. However, the challenge remains: sustaining this surplus while domestic economic activity lacks traction to boost capital goods imports and improve industrial productivity.
Source: INDEC data and LCG reports, July 2026. See the original story at Imago.