Iran Sets the Tone: Hormuz Won't Reopen Without Conditions
Iran's chief negotiator and Speaker of Parliament, Mohammad Baqer Qalibaf, was blunt this Tuesday, August 18, 2026: the Strait of Hormuz "will not be opened until US commitments are implemented" under the agreement protocol signed in June. Tehran's demands include:
- The lifting of the US naval blockade.
- The unfreezing of Iranian assets.
- The removal of the oil embargo.
- The end of military operations on all fronts.
Qalibaf's remarks, aired on state television, come one day after the 60-day deadline of the memorandum of understanding signed on June 17, 2026 between Washington and Tehran expired. That agreement, reached after the war began on February 28, 2026, envisioned a truce to negotiate a lasting diplomatic solution, but it yielded no concrete results.
Trump Fires Back: "It's Open and Operational"
Meanwhile, US President Donald Trump doubled down, denying there is "dialogue or ongoing talks, nor any planned" with the Islamic Republic. On his Truth Social platform, Trump claimed that the strait is "open and in operation" and that "all mines in the waters have been removed or detonated."
The president went further, posting a map depicting Hormuz as "US territory", consistent with his earlier threat to declare the area as such. According to a US source cited by AFP, talks with Iran were suspended on Trump's orders, who instructed his teams not to resume dialogue unless Tehran moves closer to Washington's positions.
Maritime Traffic in Freefall
While diplomacy appears stalled, shipping data paints a dire picture. According to data platform Kpler, confirmed transits through the Strait of Hormuz fell 19.5% last week to 95 passages, with only three vessels managing to cross the waterway on Sunday.
Ships used the route designated by Iran, with no crossings via Omani routes. In parallel, an unidentified projectile damaged the engine room of a vessel off the coast of Oman, according to maritime monitoring agency UKMTO, without specifying whether the affected crew member died or was injured.
Transits through the Bab el-Mandeb strait, a key alternative to Hormuz, increased 6.7% to 254 passages, while so-called "dark transits" (ships turning off their transponders) dropped from 40 to 16.
Oman in the Eye of the Storm
The situation grows more complicated with Oman's mediation. The country, which has coastlines on the strait, seeks an agreement with Iran to manage maritime traffic. Trump threatened to "bomb Oman" if it gets in the way, and his administration has already expressed opposition to parts of the deal, including joint Iranian-Omani management of the exit route and voluntary tolls on ships.
Egypt, meanwhile, suggested that the Iran-Oman agreement could pave the way for Washington and Tehran to return to negotiations for a "comprehensive and permanent deal." Qatar, another mediator, said the agreement "would facilitate" the resumption of talks to end the war.
Additional Front: Houthis Attack Saudi Refinery
In parallel, Yemen's Houthi rebels, backed by Iran, claimed responsibility for a drone attack on an oil refinery operated by Saudi Aramco in Saudi Arabia—the latest in a series of incidents threatening to reignite the Yemeni civil war and open another Middle East front. There were no immediate reports of damage or comments from Riyadh.
The escalation comes amid maximum alert in the United Arab Emirates, which issued a phone alert this Tuesday over "missile threats" after detecting two ballistic projectiles launched from Iran toward the country.
Global and Local Impact
The conflict has sent oil prices soaring above $90 per barrel, becoming a political burden for Trump ahead of the November midterm elections. The uncertainty also hits Argentina, where the country risk indicator surpassed 480 points and markets are closely watching the war's evolution, which affects energy and commodity prices.
The White House, for its part, is betting on the long-term effects of economic pressure on Iran through the naval blockade and sanctions, but Tehran maintains control of the strait since the conflict began—a position Qalibaf summarized harshly: "We are ready to inflict an even more crushing defeat on the enemy."