The Crumbling Bastion
Javier Milei, the libertarian economist who stormed to power in Argentina's 2023 presidential election, owes much of his victory to a generational wave: young voters were his strongest electoral pillar. But just over a year before the next presidential election in 2027, that support is collapsing. A joint survey by Atlas Intel and Bloomberg, conducted in late July with 1,120 cases, put Milei's overall approval at 37.1%, against a disapproval of 62.4%.
The most striking figure comes from the 16 to 24 age group: negative image of Milei reaches 76.9%—meaning eight out of ten young people have turned their backs on him. Among those aged 25 to 34, disapproval hits 71.9%. These numbers are especially significant given that 53% of the electoral roll is under 39 years old.
“In the last three months there has been a considerable increase in negativity and rejection among young men over 25. Among those under 25, there is still some support for the government, but it is diminishing,” said Gustavo Córdoba, director of Zuban Córdoba.
The Economy: The Great Trigger
Economic discontent appears as the transversal factor explaining the youth vote exodus. A study by the Instituto Universitario CIAS, conducted between May and June in working-class neighborhoods of the Buenos Aires metropolitan area (AMBA), revealed that 75% of young people perceive the economy has worsened in the last 12 months, while only 8% think it is better than a year ago.
The same survey indicates that 60% of young households had to cut consumption or regular spending so far in 2026, and 57% had to borrow money or take out credit to cover daily expenses. The predominant borrowing method is informal: 68% from family or friends and 39% from neighborhood moneylenders. Formal channels are less common: 21% via apps or digital wallets and 18% via credit cards.
Consultancy Management & Fit also registered the disenchantment: disapproval of Milei among those under 40 reaches 57.3%, and is even higher among women, at 60.9%. In the ranking of the country's problems, price and tariff increases lead with 22.4%, followed by corruption (17.9%), unemployment (17.6%), and poverty (16.2%).
Where the Youth Vote Is Heading
The CIAS study also probed voting intentions in working-class neighborhoods: 67% of young people would vote for Peronism if elections were held today, while only 25% would choose La Libertad Avanza. The left appears with 6% and the PRO with just 2%.
Among those who voted for Milei in 2023, only 58% would vote for him again. A 16% would lean toward Peronism, 20% don't know, won't vote, or will cast a blank ballot, 3% would opt for the left, and another 3% for PRO. In short: 42% of the young people who supported Milei three years ago now turn their backs on him.
The Official Response and the Kicillof Factor
In the Casa Rosada (Argentina's presidential palace), they acknowledge the problem. The diagnosis among official strategists is that Milei needs to be elected in the first round in 2027, because there are risks he might not win a runoff. To achieve that, he would need 45% of the votes or 40% with a margin of more than 10 points over the second-place candidate.
Meanwhile, Buenos Aires Governor Axel Kicillof, one of the best-positioned opposition leaders, is preparing an event for Saturday, August 22, in San Martín, where he will launch the youth branch of the Movimiento Derecho al Futuro (Right to Future Movement). The goal is to win over those young people disillusioned with the libertarian leader.
A study by Zuban Córdoba shows that only 38% of young people currently support Milei's administration, compared to the 48% to 50% he reached before the 2025 elections. The consultancy also asked whether the sovereignty issue could be a determining factor for 2027: 68% answered yes, in a context where the march against the modification of the land law brought thousands of young people to the streets in front of Congress.
A Scenario Without Clear Winners
The latest measurement by Zentrix Consultora, released this weekend, reinforces the diagnosis: the president's negative image climbed to 58.5%, the lowest level in over a year. But the wear and tear finds no clear recipient: the main opposition figure carries an almost identical rejection, and no figure in the ruling party offers a replacement. The projection toward 2027 is shaping up, for now, without clear winners.
In the “círculo rojo” (the country's business and political elite), the latest poll by Jorge Giacobbe, a pollster not aligned with Kirchnerism, caused a stir: it shows Kicillof winning a runoff with 45.8% against 45.4% for Milei.
The government, meanwhile, is trying to forge alliances with the PRO and is pushing a reform to eliminate the PASO (primary elections), convinced that bringing the electoral climate forward works against it. The question that hangs in the air is whether Milei can once again connect with the new generations that brought him to power.