The collapse of key housing decrees has triggered an institutional crisis, leading Prime Minister Pedro Sánchez to call for early general elections. With a modified electoral map driven by demographic shifts, the battle for the Spanish Congress promises to be fierce, potentially redefining the balance of power in Madrid.

Political Earthquake in Spain

The Spanish political landscape is shifting once again. Prime Minister Pedro Sánchez has made the drastic decision to call for early general elections on November 29. The catalyst for this move was the failure of housing decrees, a legislative blow that reportedly left the Executive without room for maneuver.

While the Congress of Deputies (Spain's lower house of Parliament) will maintain its total of 350 seats, the strategic game has changed. According to data published in the Boletín Oficial del Estado (BOE)—the official gazette where all laws and decrees are published in Spain—the distribution of representatives among provinces has been adjusted based on demographic changes recorded since July.

Key Concept: CERA

The CERA (Census of Absentee Voters) refers to Spanish citizens living abroad who have the right to vote, a group that can significantly sway election results in closely contested races.

Crucial Data Point:

Madrid is strengthening its position by gaining one seat (now totaling 38), driven by a 30.4% surge in the CERA census. Conversely, Cádiz is the only province to lose representation, dropping from nine to eight deputies.

Seat Distribution Breakdown

The following table details the representation that will define the next government of Spain:

Seats Provinces / Constituencies
38 Madrid
32 Barcelona
16 Valencia
12 Seville, Alicante
11 Málaga
10 Murcia
8 Baleares, Vizcaya, Cádiz, Coruña, Las Palmas

The remaining distribution is completed as follows:

  • 7 seats: Asturias, Granada, Pontevedra, Santa Cruz de Tenerife, and Zaragoza.
  • 6 seats: Almería, Córdoba, Guipúzcoa, Gerona, Tarragona, and Toledo.
  • 5 seats: Badajoz, Huelva, Cantabria, Castellón, Ciudad Real, Jaén, Navarra, and Valladolid.
  • 4 seats: Albacete, Álava, Burgos, Cáceres, León, Lérida, Lugo, Orense, La Rioja, and Salamanca.
  • 3 seats: Ávila, Cuenca, Guadalajara, Huesca, Palencia, Segovia, Teruel, and Zamora.
  • 1 to 2 seats: Soria (2), Ceuta (1), and Melilla (1).

Source: BOLETÍN OFICIAL DEL ESTADO