12/07/2026 16:39 - Economia
The Argentine economy continues to show positive signs of recovery, with its country risk indicator hovering near 400 basis points. For those unfamiliar, the country risk measures the probability of a nation defaulting on its debt; a lower number indicates higher international market confidence. This marks the lowest level since April 2018, accumulating a 29.4% drop so far in 2026.
This optimistic scenario opens the door for Argentina to return to international debt markets, a move unseen for 8 years. The Ministry of Economy, led by Luis Caputo, detailed a plan to cover debt maturities amounting to US$24 billion through the end of 2027.
In the framework of this new financial context, the national government announced it has paid US$4.2 billion in debt and is preparing for the launch of the Bonar 2029 for US$2 billion on July 15, 2026. The Bonar (Bono Argentino) refers to sovereign bonds issued by Argentina in foreign currency. This bond, maturing in October 2029, is a key step in the 2027 financial plan.
To support this strategy, the Central Bank of Argentina (BCRA, by its Spanish acronym) refinanced US$6 billion with 10 banks through REPO operations, postponing maturities to 2028. Additionally, it implemented a shield of measures to contain pressure on the US dollar ahead of the 2027 elections, including intervention in futures markets and the sale of dollar-linked bonds.
The official exchange rate for retail sales remains stable around 1,515 Argentine Pesos (ARS) at Banco Nacion. The BCRA maintains an estimated firepower of US$20 billion to sustain its goal of keeping the exchange rate at 1,500 ARS.
Inflation in the Autonomous City of Buenos Aires (CABA) for June was 1.8%, with a projected 2% at the national level. The International Monetary Fund (IMF) projects a 3.5% economic growth for Argentina during this period.
Wall Street Responds:
Argentine ADRs (American Depositary Receipts, which allow US investors to trade foreign stocks) reflected market enthusiasm: Grupo Galicia rose 9%, BBVA Argentina rose 9%, and Grupo Supervielle climbed 6.14%. The local S&P Merval index (the main benchmark of the Buenos Aires Stock Exchange) also jumped 2.4%, reaching 3,280,224 points.
Alfredo S. Quiroga
