22/07/2026 10:33 - Economia
According to various media reports on July 21, 2026, oil prices registered their fourth consecutive session of gains, driven by growing concerns over global supply amidst the Middle East conflict.
The North Sea Brent barrel (the European benchmark) for September delivery closed at $91.01, marking a 2.01% increase. This was its first close above $90 since early June. Meanwhile, the West Texas Intermediate (WTI) (the U.S. benchmark) for August delivery advanced by 2.02% to $84.91. For context, Brent and WTI are the two primary global pricing benchmarks for oil, helping to set the cost of energy worldwide.
Investment bank Goldman Sachs maintained its optimistic base scenario, projecting an easing that would bring Brent down to $80 in the fourth quarter and $75 next year. However, they warned that risks 'tilt to the upside': if disruptions in the Strait of Hormuz persist, crude could surpass $120 per barrel.
The Strait of Hormuz is a narrow, strategically vital waterway connecting the Persian Gulf to the open ocean, and one of the most sensitive routes for global crude trade. According to Goldman Sachs, estimated flows from the Persian Gulf fell below 45% of pre-war levels. To bypass this bottleneck, Saudi Arabia redirected shipments towards the Red Sea. However, Houthi rebels from Yemen (an armed political and religious group backed by Iran) are threatening to block this alternative. On July 21, 2026, the firm Vanguard Tech identified two vessels that turned around in the Red Sea after loading crude at the Saudi port of Yanbu.
Fatih Birol, Director of the International Energy Agency (IEA), warned that the deterioration in Hormuz 'raises concerns about supply security.' Despite this, there is a horizon of opportunities: Goldman Sachs advised investors to take bullish positions on the European diesel price differential for December 2026 and March 2027, betting on hedging against volatility. Jay Hatfield, from Infrastructure Capital Management, estimated that crude will oscillate between $80 and $90, opening a margin for stabilization if the Red Sea is not completely closed, as reported by Infobae and La Nacion.
Alfredo S. Quiroga
