15/06/2026 03:59 - Economia
Gráficos financieros en rojo mostrando caídas abruptas del mercado petrolero, con barriles de petróleo y pantallas de trading modernas
The global oil market is experiencing a historic crisis of confidence. Investors are abandoning oil futures contracts at a rate never before seen, fleeing an asset that has become hostage to geopolitical volatility and shifting messages about the war in the Middle East.
According to data from LSEG (London Stock Exchange Group), open interest—the number of Brent crude futures contracts held by investors—has plummeted nearly 17% so far in 2026, marking the fastest exit rate since at least 2009.
Open interest represents the total number of outstanding futures contracts waiting to be settled at any given moment. It serves as a key indicator of market liquidity and confidence: when it drops dramatically, it means investors are withdrawing their capital because they consider the asset too risky or unpredictable.
Liquidity measures the balance between buyers and sellers. A liquid market allows large volume trades without affecting prices. When liquidity decreases, transactions become more difficult and expensive, increasing volatility and risk for all participants.
The primary reason behind this massive exodus is the political uncertainty generated by contradictory statements about the Middle East conflict. The oil market has become hostage to daily social media posts about the war.
A senior oil market executive cited by Reuters was blunt: "People are exhausted by this chaos. They want it to end. You cannot trade futures without constantly losing money in an environment where messages change every two hours."
Oil prices fell nearly 3% to their lowest level in almost two months on Friday, June 13, 2026, after Trump canceled new attacks on Iran and claimed to be close to a peace agreement.
Jeffrey Currie, former head of commodities at Goldman Sachs and current senior advisor at alternative asset manager Carlyle, offered revealing analysis on his X account on June 10, 2026:
"Political uncertainty has made oil too volatile to hold. The drop in open interest so far in 2026 is the worst on record. Unlike 2022, there's no interest rate crisis or sanctions forcing the exit. This is capital aversion."
Currie emphasized that crude prices haven't returned significantly above USD 100 per barrel in recent weeks, not because supply was abundant, but because investors simply don't want to expose themselves to risk.
| Indicator | Value | Context |
|---|---|---|
| Brent Crude | USD 88.27/barrel | 2.3% decline (June 13, 2026) |
| WTI Crude | USD 85.81/barrel | 2.2% decline (June 13, 2026) |
| IEA Released Reserves | 400 million barrels | Historic depletion |
| Japan Released Reserves | 90 million barrels | International contribution |
| Cushing Reserves (Oklahoma) | 21.6 million barrels | Near critical 20 million level |
| Conflict Casualties | Over 3,700 deaths | Since February 28, 2026 |
Note: The IEA (International Energy Agency) is an autonomous intergovernmental organization established in 1974 within the framework of the OECD. It coordinates emergency oil stockpiling among member countries.
Donald Trump announced a peace agreement with Iran to be signed on Sunday, June 14, 2026, via virtual meeting. The agreement would include immediate reopening of the Strait of Hormuz (through which 20% of global oil passes), a 60-day ceasefire extension, Iran's renunciation of nuclear ambitions, and destruction of enriched uranium.
If the agreement materializes, it could bring some stability to the market. However, investors remain skeptical after months of contradictory messages and extreme volatility.
The mediators of the agreement: Pakistan, Qatar, Egypt, and Turkey, according to available reports.
While the current situation presents challenges, the potential peace agreement offers a pathway to stability. The reopening of the Strait of Hormuz would restore critical supply routes, and reduced geopolitical tensions could encourage investors to return to the market. The energy transition and diversification efforts continue to create opportunities for long-term growth in the sector.
Alfredo S. Quiroga
