24/06/2026 22:03 - Economia
MSCI (Morgan Stanley Capital International), one of the world's most influential index providers for institutional investors, announced on June 24, 2025 that it will not open a public consultation to reclassify Argentina. This means the country will remain in the Standalone Market category—its lowest classification—until at least 2027.
The Standalone Market category represents isolated markets that don't meet minimum standards for inclusion in major indices. Argentina currently shares this status with countries like Panama, Jamaica, Trinidad and Tobago, Malta, Bosnia, Palestine, Nigeria, Zimbabwe, Lebanon, and Ukraine.
The obstacles identified by MSCI include:
Argentina was classified as an Emerging Market until 2021, when it lost this status specifically due to currency controls implemented during the Fernández administration.
Following MSCI's announcement:
If Argentina could upgrade to Emerging Market status, passive investment funds that track MSCI indices would be required to include Argentine assets in their portfolios. According to estimates by Eric Ritondale, director at Puente investment firm, this could inject approximately USD 4.5 billion in institutional investments into the country.
Regional countries that maintain Emerging Market status are: Brazil, Chile, Colombia, Mexico, and Peru. Argentina would represent approximately 5% of the Frontier Markets index if it qualified.
Ritondale estimates that an upgrade could materialize by 2028, provided structural barriers to foreign investment are resolved.
MSCI's decision adds to a context of global risk aversion. Markets anticipate interest rate hikes by the U.S. Federal Reserve, triggering sales of emerging market assets and dollar purchases.
In parallel, Argentina's official dollar exchange rate reached $1,490 ARS at Banco Nación (the highest since January), while the blue dollar (parallel market rate) hit $1,505 ARS, accumulating a 5.2% increase in June. The MEP dollar (electronic market rate) climbed to $1,507 ARS (+1.5%) and contado con liquidación (cash settlement rate) reached $1,554 ARS (+1.6%).
The Central Bank (BCRA) maintains reserves of USD 47.508 billion, though its daily dollar purchases decreased from USD 138 million (April-May) to USD 79 million in June.
Sources: Cronista, MSCI Index Classification Review June 2025
Alfredo S. Quiroga
