13/07/2026 04:16 - Economia
After several weeks of relatively calm communication, the U.S. Federal Reserve (Fed)—the central bank of the United States responsible for the country's monetary policy—prepares for a concentrated wave of speeches before the quiet period prior to its next meeting, according to a note by Deutsche Bank published on July 11, 2026.
The market is watching for a concrete signal: whether any Fed official publicly signals support for a rate hike at the July meeting, following the June minutes which showed that "several" members believed there were reasons to raise rates last month.
The member of the Fed's Board of Governors will speak before the New York Business Economics Association. Unlike Warsh, Waller usually details his policy response and expectations with substance. Deutsche Bank specifically notes that his comments will be closely monitored for signals on his inclination: whether he supports a hike in July, maintains a pause, or waits for more data.
The two-day statement before the U.S. Congress represents the most significant public appearance by the Fed Chair since the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting on June 17. This meeting drove six consecutive weeks of outflows from Bitcoin ETFs and a Reuters consensus that there will be no rate cuts until late 2027. Warsh is expected to reiterate that inflation risks have decreased and remain silent on future actions, although congressional questions could force an elaboration on the Iranian oil shock.
The release of the Consumer Price Index (CPI) for June—scheduled for July 14—will be the epicenter of the week. The CPI is a crucial economic indicator that examines the weighted average of prices of a basket of consumer goods and services, serving as a primary gauge of inflation. Subsequently, Fed Vice Chair Jefferson, Logan from the Dallas Fed, and Schmid from the Kansas City Fed will speak on Friday. Each official will have seen the data and will be interpreting it in real time, offering the first window to know if the numbers shift any votes.
The minutes from the June meeting indicated that "several" officials believed there were reasons to raise rates. Since then, the situation has been mixed. Oil prices and inflation expectations retreated after the ceasefire with Iran, but rebounded after its collapse: Brent crude jumped 5% on July 8, and on July 11, Iran formally dismissed negotiations until the U.S. changes its stance.
Furthermore, the unemployment rate fell to 4.2% in June, removing a traditional argument for cuts, and consumer inflation expectations rose to 3.7%, the highest figure since September 2023, according to a New York Fed survey.
Deutsche Bank explicitly states that the possibility of dissenting votes in favor of a rate hike at the July meeting cannot be ruled out, which would be the Fed's most aggressive event on its own since the June dot plot.
The CPI figure on July 14 had been identified as the only binary event to sustain the Bitcoin recovery thesis. The upcoming week transforms that catalyst into a series of overlapping events throughout the week.
Bitcoin, trading around $64,000 entering the upcoming week, is positioned exactly at the level where the outcome of this sequence will determine whether the 307-day consolidation in the $60,000–$70,000 range resolves with an advance or a test of the lower limit.
Alfredo S. Quiroga
