15/07/2026 09:18 - Economia
The Argentine economy has shown a highly encouraging sign. According to reports from the National Institute of Statistics and Censuses (INDEC—the public agency responsible for collecting and providing economic data in Argentina), June 2026 inflation decelerated to 1.9%, breaking the 2% monthly barrier for the first time in 10 months. This data, which aligns with projections from major consulting firms, marks a significant step in the price stabilization process driven by the government of President Javier Milei.
Although President Milei's goal of reaching an index starting with zero in August seems unlikely for now, the trend is overwhelmingly positive. In the first half of 2026, the Consumer Price Index (CPI) accumulated an increase of 16.8%, while the year-over-year variation stood at 33.5%. This is a stark contrast to the 211% year-over-year inflation that Milei inherited when he took office in late 2023.
The category analysis reveals an interesting dynamic. Core inflation—which excludes seasonal and regulated products to measure the underlying trend—was even better, dropping to 1.6%.
| Category | Variation in June 2026 |
|---|---|
| Recreation and culture (tourism packages) | +4.2% |
| Housing, water, electricity, gas | +3.3% |
| Seasonal (vegetables, fruits) | +3.4% |
| Communications | +0.9% |
| Food and non-alcoholic beverages | +1.3% |
| Clothing and footwear | +0.4% |
As detailed by the Argentine media outlet Ámbito, the strong moderation in food and beverages (+1.3%) was key, driven by the stability of meat prices and offsetting rises in vegetables with drops in fruits.
Despite the excellent news, the cost of living continues to exert pressure. According to a publication by Infobae, the basic basket registered an increase of 2.2%. This means that a typical Argentine family needed $1,531,473 ARS to avoid falling into poverty, and $689,853 ARS to avoid extreme poverty (indigence) in June.
A report from the Argentine Center for Political Economy (CEPA) revealed that, between 2023 and 2026, the median remuneration of registered salaries grew by 305%. However, fixed costs and public services experienced much more pronounced jumps: the subway (subte) multiplied its value almost 20-fold (a cumulative increase of 1926%), city buses (colectivos) increased by 1450%, and trains by 977%.
For the government, inflation is a strictly monetary phenomenon. Therefore, presidential spokesman Adrián Ravier announced that the Executive Branch will send a bill to Congress to reform the Organic Charter of the Central Bank of the Argentine Republic (BCRA). The initiative seeks to prohibit the BCRA from issuing currency to finance the National Treasury, toughen responsibilities, and guarantee the entity's independence, with the ultimate goal of 'never having inflation again.'
On the political front, polls indicate a polarized scenario heading into the 2027 elections. A study by Casa3, directed by Mora Jozami, revealed that the Governor of the populous Buenos Aires province, Axel Kicillof, has grown exponentially as the leader of the opposition, going from 6% consideration in January 2024 to 34% currently. Former President Cristina Kirchner ranked second with 19%, while former Economy Minister and Presidential Candidate Sergio Massa fell to a marginal 2%.
For July 2026, economists consulted by the Spanish newspaper El País and Ámbito project that inflation could hover around 2% again, driven by the effect of winter school holidays on the tourism sector. However, the general consensus is that the disinflationary path, although slow, will remain firm during the second half of the year.
Alfredo S. Quiroga
