BCRA Slows Reserve Accumulation to Bolster the Exchange Rate Anchor
Argentina's Central Bank (BCRA) recorded a purchase of just US$10 million in the official foreign exchange market on Tuesday, August 18, 2026—the second-lowest daily purchase since the reserve accumulation program began. The operation took place in a low-volume trading session, with a total of US$344 million transacted.
Why Did the Government Decide to Slow Purchases?
This strategy reflects a deliberate decision by the monetary authority, led by Santiago Bausili, aimed at avoiding upward pressure on the exchange rate and maintaining the disinflation path. According to sources within the economic team, the short-term priority is nominal stability and the exchange rate anchor, rather than the speed at which gross reserves are rebuilt.
The wholesale dollar closed Tuesday at 1,495 pesos for sale—7.50 pesos above the previous Friday's close—keeping it below the psychological threshold of 1,500 pesos. According to analyst Gustavo Quintana, the currency started the week with a buying trend in a low-volume market, ranging from a low of 1,490.50 pesos to a high of 1,496.50 pesos.
Rising Interest Rates: Short-Term Lending Near 30%
The exchange rate movement occurred amid heightened tension in the money market. Short-term interest rates rose sharply again, with secured lending (caución) rates nearing 30%—a sign that available liquidity remains tight. In parallel, the TAMAR (average interbank rate) rose from 24.19% to 24.56%, while the BADLAR (reference rate for fixed-term deposits) increased from 22.56% to 23.31%.
According to PPI (a leading Argentine financial consultancy), the tension between rates and the dollar persists because the government faces an increasingly visible trade-off: the rise in rates cannot be attributed solely to the latest Treasury auction (with a rollover of 100.3%, implying an absorption of only 10 billion pesos), but rather to the BCRA's possible intervention in the secondary dollar-linked bond market, which would have further restricted liquidity.
Gross Reserves and Valuation Effects
Despite the official purchase, gross international reserves rose by US$96 million, closing at US$49.592 billion. The stock remains above US$49 billion, although it has not yet recovered the recent peak of US$50 billion.
The increase occurred despite a negative valuation effect: gold fell 1.70%, subtracting nearly US$65 million from the book value of the Central Bank's holdings. In global markets, the US dollar rose 0.12%, the euro fell 0.07%, the pound sterling declined 0.11%, the Chinese yuan depreciated 0.05%, and the Japanese yen fell 0.14%.
Alternative Dollar Rates and the Exchange Rate Gap
| Exchange Rate Type | Value (08/18/2026) |
|---|---|
| Wholesale Dollar (official) | 1,495 pesos |
| Official Dollar (Banco Nación) | 1,510 pesos |
| MEP Dollar (stock market) | 1,517.76 pesos |
| Contado con Liquidación (CCL) | 1,591.09 pesos |
| Blue Dollar (informal) | 1,555 pesos |
All alternative exchange rates ended the day higher. The gap between the blue dollar and the wholesale rate stood at 4.01%, while the spread between CCL and wholesale was 4.83%.
Inflation: The Government's Bet
The July CPI came in at 2.1% monthly (just 0.2 percentage points above June), providing some relief to the government. For the coming months, according to forecasts in the Market Expectations Survey (REM) published by the BCRA, the CPI is expected to be between 1.8% and 1.9%, declining to 1.6%–1.8% in the following months, except in December due to the seasonal impact of Christmas.
The government is aiming to keep the wholesale dollar below 1,500 pesos and the retail rate at a maximum of 1,515–1,520 pesos, to prevent any currency depreciation from passing through to prices.
Futures Market and Expectations
In the futures market, the curve traded higher across all maturities: August rose 0.40%, September gained 0.43%, December climbed 0.43%, and 2027 contracts also closed in positive territory. The implied rate for August stood at 1.96% monthly (23.48% annualized), while September's implied rate was 1.85% monthly (22.14% annualized).
The REM projects an official dollar of around 1,652 pesos by year-end and continued disinflation. Meanwhile, Economy Minister Luis Caputo has enabled dollar-denominated credit for all companies, capped at 15% of foreign currency deposits per bank (potentially US$40 billion)—a measure that could bolster the supply of dollars in the official market, though analysts warn of the electoral risk of this scheme.