28/07/2026 18:14 - Politica
The Government Confidence Index (ICG), produced monthly by the University Torcuato Di Tella (UTDT) in partnership with the polling firm Poliarquía, dropped to 1.94 points in July 2026 (on a scale of 0 to 5). This represents a 6.5% decline compared to June, which had been the only positive month so far this year. The survey, based on 1,000 interviews conducted between July 1 and 16, also shows a 21% year-over-year drop.
Of the seven months of 2026, six have been negative, with an accumulated contraction of 21.5% since the end of 2025. The administration of President Javier Milei now completes its 31st month in office with an average ICG of 2.37 points—the lowest average for any month 31 in recent presidencies, as detailed below.
The most alarming trend for the ruling party is that the decline has now reached the demographic groups that had been the government's strongest supporters. Confidence among men fell 11.3%, while the steepest drop occurred among young adults aged 18 to 29, who saw a 23% plunge to 1.68 points—well below the national average. Geographically, the Greater Buenos Aires (GBA) area—the densely populated metropolitan region surrounding the capital—recorded a 10.9% contraction to 1.63 points, the weakest regional score.
Among the five components of the ICG, four declined. The largest deterioration was in Efficiency (-15.4% to 1.79 points), followed by Capacity (-7.3% to 2.28) and Concern for the General Interest (-6.9% to 1.51). The only stable variable was Honesty, which remained at 2.45 points.
Other polling firms—including Poliarquía, Opina Argentina, and Trespuntozero—also recorded declines in July, attributing the drop to persistent economic hardship, falling purchasing power, and the fading 'post-World Cup' unity effect that briefly boosted sentiment after Argentina's 2022 victory.
The UTDT study aligns with research from the Instituto Universitario CIAS on young people in low-income neighborhoods, where Peronism leads voting intention, though La Libertad Avanza (Milei's party) holds a significant second place. Three out of four young people believe the economy worsened over the past year. However, off-the-record sources suggest that new voters entering the electorate in 2027 may have profiles more aligned with the libertarian wave of 2023 than with current young voters.
The government acknowledges that its main challenge is translating macroeconomic stability into tangible improvements in people's pockets. Meanwhile, the opposition—led by Máximo Kirchner—is pushing a bill related to the IMF to shape the narrative ahead of the next elections. Confidence among those who believe the situation will improve in a year stands at 4.15 points, while those expecting a worsening plummeted to 0.33 points.
Presidential spokesperson Adrián Ravier stated that the administration is focused on medium- and long-term trends and remains confident in achieving re-election in 2027. Yet internal strategists admit they are struggling to 'win the debate on economic recovery,' especially in large urban areas.
Sources: Ámbito, Cenital, Infobae, La Nación, La Política Online.
Alfredo S. Quiroga
