13/06/2026 15:42 - Economia
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Argentina is experiencing an extraordinary financial week. Rating agency Standard & Poor's (S&P) upgraded the country's sovereign credit rating from CCC+ to B-, adding to the improvement Fitch had made in May 2026. This "double upgrade" triggered a key factor for international investors: the technical unlocking of institutional mandates that were previously prohibited from investing in CCC-rated bonds.
The impact was immediate. The S&P Merval (Argentina's main stock index) reached an intraday nominal record of 3,390,505 points on Friday, June 12, accumulating a weekly gain of 8.9%. Argentine ADRs on Wall Street led the gains: banks like Francés, Macro, Galicia, and Supervielle recorded increases between 14% and 18% in dollar terms.
What are ADRs? American Depositary Receipts are securities representing shares of foreign companies that trade on U.S. exchanges. They allow international investors to buy Argentine companies without dealing with local market complications.
Country Risk (known in Spanish as "Riesgo País") measures the premium investors demand to hold Argentine debt compared to safe U.S. Treasury bonds. JP Morgan's country risk indicator for Argentina fell to 433 basis points, the lowest level since May 1, 2018 (when it registered 431 points). In just one week, the indicator dropped nearly 60 basis points, equivalent to a 12% decline.
| Indicator | Value |
|---|---|
| Current country risk | 433-440 bp |
| Previous week | ~500 bp |
| Last similar minimum | May 2018 |
| Weekly decline | ~12% |
While Argentine markets celebrated, SpaceX debuted on Nasdaq under the ticker SPCX with an unprecedented initial public offering (IPO). Elon Musk's company raised USD 75 billion, surpassing the previous record held by Saudi Aramco (USD 29.4 billion in 2019).
The B- rating from S&P indicates that Argentina has the capacity to meet its financial obligations, though it remains vulnerable to adverse economic changes. This is the second-lowest level within the "B" category, but represents a significant leap from CCC+, which implied high risk of default.
According to Cocos Capital, a leading Argentine financial analysis firm, the upgrade "unlocks the universe of institutional funds that were prohibited from investing in CCC, structurally expanding the demand base for sovereign bonds." This means that investment funds, pension funds (known as AFPs in Latin America), and institutional managers who previously couldn't purchase Argentine debt due to internal mandates now have the green light.
Key Insight: The spread of Argentine sovereign bonds compared to the emerging markets universe is at decade lows, sitting at just 250 basis points, compared to 450 points registered at the beginning of 2026.
Argentine sovereign bonds registered strong yield compression following S&P's announcement. According to IEB (Inversión y Economía Buenos Aires), Global bonds rose 2.8% during the week, with the long end of the curve up 3.6% on average. Bonares (Argentina's local law bonds) advanced 2.3% on average.
The AE38 bond stands out as the most attractive according to analysts: trading at USD 83 and set to pay approximately USD 12 between coupon payments and amortization over the next 12 months. This implies a potential return of 14.5% in dollars if the bond maintains its parity.
2026 Year-to-Date Performance
Top Performing ADRs This Week
Analyst Salvador Di Stéfano warns that oil stocks like YPF and Vista could decline if crude oil breaks below USD 80/barrel. He recommends rotating toward financial sector stocks.
For conservative investors, the strategy of buying dollar-linked bonds and selling dollar futures offers returns exceeding 27% annually.
The rating upgrade arrives amid positive economic signals:
2.1%
May 2026 Inflation
(8-month low)
USD 10.6B
BCRA Net Purchases
(2026 YTD)
USD 47.4B
Gross Reserves
(as of June 12, 2026)
Argentina's Central Bank (BCRA - Banco Central de la República Argentina) continues accumulating reserves, with 107 consecutive buying sessions. The wholesale exchange rate remains stable at $1,428 Argentine pesos per dollar, while the "dólar blue" (the parallel market rate) trades at $1,460, with a minimal gap of 2.24%.
Understanding the "Dólar Blue": This is Argentina's informal/parallel exchange rate, historically higher than the official rate due to capital controls. A narrow gap between official and parallel rates indicates improved market confidence and reduced currency stress.
Analysts anticipate the country risk could approach 400 basis points in coming weeks. Puente, a prominent Argentine financial services firm, notes that "the compression of Argentine spreads versus emerging markets puts the country in a privileged position for a potential reopening of the international credit market."
According to Insider Finance, portfolios continue combining dollar-denominated sovereign bonds with economy-linked equities, with particular focus on banks and utilities. Preferred stocks include Grupo Financiero Galicia, Banco Macro, ByMA (Buenos Aires Stock Exchange), Edenor, and Ecogas.
June 23 could bring another relevant development: Morgan Stanley would be evaluating reclassifying Argentina from independent market to Frontier Market status, which would further expand the potential investor base.
Conclusion: The Argentine government is experiencing a dream week in financial terms. The credit rating upgrade, falling country risk, and stable macroeconomic context create conditions for Argentina to issue new 10-year debt with coupons above 5% annually—something the capital markets urgently need.
Alfredo S. Quiroga
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