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Wall Street Celebrates US-Iran Deal: Argentine Country Risk Hits 8-Year Low

16/06/2026 05:00 - Economia

Wall Street riesgo país petróleo ADRs argentinos acuerdo EEUU-Irán

Gráfico financiero moderno con líneas de tendencia en verde ascendente, sobre un fondo abstracto de mapamundi y barriles de petróleo. Estilo profesional y limpio, con colores azul y verde que representan estabilidad económica.

Global financial markets erupted in euphoria following major developments from the Middle East. The preliminary agreement between the United States and Iran, which includes an end to hostilities and the reopening of the strategic Strait of Hormuz, created a favorable environment for emerging market assets, with Argentina taking center stage after its credit rating upgrade.

Record Highs on Wall Street as Oil Plummets

Optimism swept through Wall Street on June 15, 2026. Major stock indices closed with significant gains: the S&P 500 rose 1.7%, while the Nasdaq 100 led the rally with a 3.1% advance, fueled by SpaceX's record debut and relief in energy costs. The Dow Jones Industrial Average also climbed 0.96%, marking new all-time highs.

Impact on Oil Markets

The normalization of traffic through the Strait of Hormuz, through which 20% of global oil flows, pushed international prices lower. Brent crude fell 4.1% to settle at USD 83.79, its lowest level since March. WTI also retreated, closing at USD 81.59.

Winners and Losers in Argentine Markets

The favorable external environment, combined with the recent sovereign rating upgrade by S&P (from CCC+ to B-), translated into a positive session for Argentine securities abroad.

What are ADRs? American Depositary Receipts (ADRs) are certificates that represent shares of foreign companies traded on US exchanges. They allow international investors to buy shares of Argentine companies like YPF or Mercado Libre without dealing directly with the Buenos Aires Stock Exchange.

Asset	Change	Driver
Corporación América (ADRs)	+6.4%	Global optimism
Mercado Libre	+3.6%	Technology sector rally
Satellogic	+3.2%	Tech momentum
YPF (ADRs)	-6.0%	Oil price decline
Vista Energy	-4.9%	Lower crude value

Country Risk: Best Level Since 2018

One of the most encouraging indicators of the day was the drop in the country risk index compiled by JP Morgan, which fell to 425 basis points. This level represents the lowest since April 2018, approaching the 419 points recorded in May of that year, reflecting greater investor confidence in Argentina's sovereign debt payment capacity.

Understanding Country Risk

The country risk (or EMBI+) measures the additional interest rate investors demand to hold Argentine bonds compared to US Treasury bonds. A lower number indicates greater trust in the country's economic stability and ability to repay its debts. At 425 basis points, investors are demanding 4.25% more yield than safe US bonds.

Sovereign bonds in dollars (Bonares and Globales) recorded average improvements of around 0.6%, continuing the upward trend from the previous week.

Goldman Sachs' Assessment

According to a report from investment bank Goldman Sachs, cited by Mendoza Post, the Argentine economy faces two key scenarios influenced by this new global context:

Elevated US rates: The Federal Reserve may delay rate cuts until 2027 due to the strength of the American labor market. While this typically makes financing more expensive for emerging markets, Argentina's improved credit rating partially offsets this effect.
Sustained oil prices: Despite the recent decline, strategists expect crude prices to remain relatively high due to global inventory rebuilding. This represents an opportunity for Argentina thanks to the development of Vaca Muerta, the massive shale formation that drives the country's trade surplus.

Background: The agreement between Washington and Tehran, mediated by Pakistan, Qatar, Saudi Arabia, and Turkey, is scheduled to be officially signed on June 19, 2026 in Geneva. The conflict that began in February 2026 has reportedly resulted in more than 3,700 deaths.

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