A Horizon of Stability: Inflation Continues to Slow Down in Argentina

Leading market consultants and the Central Bank of Argentina (BCRA) anticipate that the consumer price index will continue its downward path, bringing fresh air to the Argentine economy.

According to specialized media and the national government, inflation in June 2026 would have decelerated again, falling below 2%, after having closed at 2.1% in May. For July 2026, projections indicate that this trend would hold steady, consolidating a climate of optimism.

Market Projections for July

The Market Expectations Survey (REM), conducted monthly by the Central Bank of the Argentine Republic (BCRA), projected a 2% inflation rate for July. For August, the expectation is that it will reach 1.8%, a level that would be sustained throughout the rest of the year. Meanwhile, the International Monetary Fund (IMF) expects the Consumer Price Index (CPI) to close 2026 at around 25% annually, only reaching single digits in 2028.

Factors Driving Prices Up

Despite the positive outlook, some seasonal winter categories are putting pressure on the index. According to Rocío Bisang, an economist at GMA Capital, the payment of the mid-year bonus (known locally as 'aguinaldo') and the winter school holidays usually lead to price adjustments. The main upward drivers would be:

• Regulated utility rates: Gas and water (3%), subway, buses, and tolls (4.1%), and trains (8.5% to 8.6%).
• Vegetables: An increase of 10.4% in June due to a polar cold wave.
• Exchange rate: The US dollar saw an average increase of 3.7% in June, with a slight impact on local prices.

The Brakes Bringing Relief to Consumers' Pockets

The Fuel Enigma and International Context

Consultancy firm 1816 pointed out that gasoline prices should drop by approximately 16% to align with lower international crude oil prices, which would directly translate into a 0.65 percentage point drop in the CPI. However, economist Lorenzo Sigaut Gravina from Equilibra warned that the recent rebound in the international price of Brent crude, linked to geopolitical tensions in the Middle East, could alter this scenario.

Currently, the premium on fuel compensates refiners and retailers for months when gasoline was cheaper than it should have been based on the value of Brent. If the government seeks to compensate for the previous price freeze, current prices would remain stable until mid-November 2026.

With the country risk continuing its downward trend and consumption slowly reactivating, expectations for the second half of the year paint a scenario of growing stability and hope for the national economy.