15/07/2026 16:12 - Internacionales
Tensions in the Middle East have escalated to a new level following a recent attack by Saudi Arabia against targets in Yemen, an event that Houthi militias have described as an open declaration of war. This situation reopens one of the most feared threats to international trade: the potential closure of the strategic Bab el-Mandeb strait.
According to reports from specialized media, the Houthis had already warned that the price of oil could skyrocket to $200 per barrel if this maritime route is blocked. The strait, which separates the Red Sea from the Gulf of Aden, is barely 32 kilometers wide at its narrowest point, and nearly 12% of global maritime traffic flows through it. Any interruption would force ships to navigate around Africa via the Cape of Good Hope, adding 10 days of travel and millions in costs.
Eduardo Irastorza, a professor at OBS Business School, analyzed the panorama on Negocios TV and outlined a complex scenario for the West. He explained that through the Suez Canal — closely linked to Bab el-Mandeb — not only 20% of the world's oil flows, but practically all trade between Asia and Europe.
We would be facing a truly hot autumn, complicated for European economies, Irastorza stated, pointing out that freight rates would skyrocket and marine insurance policies would become exponentially more expensive. Europe emerges as the weakest link due to its energy dependence, in contrast to China, which has strategic reserves accumulated over years.
Antonio Alonso Marcos, director of the intelligence analysis master's program at San Pablo University, framed the Saudi attack within the struggle for hegemony between the United States and China. We are not just talking about Saudi Arabia and the Houthis; this is a fracture war, one of the many that are already underway, he noted.
Alonso recalled that a year and a half ago China mediated to bring Saudis and Iranians closer, but that fragile understanding has sunk. Washington's entry into the conflict since February 28 would be forcing its allies to choose sides, multiplying the risk of a widespread conflagration, although hope remains that diplomatic channels will prevail.
Security and defense analyst Juan Belicof delved into the strategic dimension, quoting Graham: The old order is dying, the new one is not yet born, and in the interim, all monsters are emerging. He recounted the spiral of aggression that includes interceptions in the Strait of Hormuz and military responses, turning the region into a powder keg. If the closure of Bab el-Mandeb is added to this, the global energy supply would be suffocated.
Although traditional multilateralism shows signs of fatigue, the international community still has the opportunity to redirect the situation toward dialogue. The search for alternative routes and the resilience of nations could mitigate the impact, demonstrating that even in moments of greatest uncertainty, diplomacy and global cooperation are essential tools to build a more stable future.
Source: Merca2
Alfredo S. Quiroga
