17/06/2026 15:31 - Economia
Gráfico financiero profesional mostrando tres planetas alineándose simbolizando las tres dimensiones económicas (inflación, cuentas externas, crecimiento), con colores verde para los dos avances y naranja para el pendiente, estilo corporate moderno con elementos bancarios
Bank of America (BofA), one of the world's leading investment banks, has sent a clear signal to the Argentine government: the opportunity to place bonds in international markets has a time limit, and postponing the decision until 2027 could amplify volatility during the electoral cycle.
The report uses this astronomical metaphor to describe Argentina's economic situation. According to BofA, Argentina exhibits strong improvement in two key dimensions:
Current account surplus and accumulation of international reserves. The Central Bank (BCRA) has already accumulated USD 10.6 billion in net purchases, a sign of strength on the external front.
Inflation for May 2026 was located at 2.1%, well below the March peak. The Rating Agency S&P upgraded Argentina's rating from CCC+ to B-, reflecting this positive evolution.
GDP grew only 1.7% in the first quarter of 2026 compared to the same period of the previous year, a still slow pace attributed to the financial shock that preceded the 2025 midterm elections.
The Minister of Economy, Luis Caputo, has prioritized alternative sources of financing such as privatizations and bank credit. However, total commitments through the end of 2027 exceed US$ 35 billion.
BofA's Warning: "We believe the opportunity to re-enter markets could remain open until the end of the year, after which electoral dynamics could make it more difficult. There is a risk that if the government waives managing its liabilities this year, it could increase volatility during next year's electoral cycle."
The country risk is currently at 425 basis points, the lowest level since April 2018, representing a unique window of access to financing at lower costs.
| Indicator | BofA Projection |
|---|---|
| GDP Growth 2026 | 3.0% |
| GDP Growth 2027 | 3.5% |
| Current Country Risk | 425 basis points (minimum since April 2018) |
| Inflation May 2026 | 2.1% |
| BCRA Reserves (net purchases) | USD 10.6 billion |
BofA maintains its recommendation to overweight Argentine bonds in investment portfolios and projects that yields could continue to fall in the coming months. The bank anticipates that growth will be led by exporting sectors and favored by the strong fall in interest rates.
Note: BofA warns that construction remains affected by excess housing inventory.
Bank of America recognizes significant progress on the external front and disinflation, but emphasizes that economic activity is the missing link to complete a virtuous circle. The window of opportunity to issue debt at reasonable costs could close if the government waits too long, especially considering the uncertainty generated by any electoral cycle.
Alfredo S. Quiroga
