26/06/2026 10:41 - Economia
For at least five months, the carry trade was the most profitable financial strategy in the Argentine market. Investors sold dollars, placed the money in pesos through Lecap (peso-denominated bills), CER bonds (inflation-adjusted bonds), or fixed-term deposits, and watched their holdings grow in hard currency without major setbacks. But that story came to an abrupt end in June 2026.
The dólar contado con liqui (a financial dollar used for converting pesos to dollars abroad) rose 4.4% nominally so far in June 2026. The dólar MEP (Electronic Payment Market dollar, another financial dollar) surpassed $1,500, a level not seen since late 2025. The dólar blue (parallel or black market dollar) climbed more than $100 in June, reaching levels near $1,530, its yearly high.
The result: the carry trade strategy evaluated with fixed-term deposits lost 2.9% measured in dollars, recording the worst monthly performance since September 2025.
It's a financial strategy where investors borrow in a currency with low interest rates and invest in assets denominated in another currency with higher rates, earning the difference. In Argentina, it involves selling dollars to place pesos in high-yield instruments (Lecap, CER bonds, fixed-term deposits), betting that devaluation won't exceed the gain from interest rates.
Argentina operates with multiple exchange rates due to currency controls ("cepo cambiario") in place since 2011. The official rate is restricted for imports and travel. The MEP dollar is purchased electronically through bonds. The contado con liqui allows conversion for foreign use. The blue dollar is the informal parallel market rate.
Economist Romina Cadario explains: "Lecap and CER bonds rose between 1.2% and 1.5% in the month, but the MEP advanced more than 4%, resulting in a loss in dollars of almost 3%."
The Federal Reserve maintains a restrictive stance with a 3.75% rate, strengthening the US currency worldwide.
End of agricultural harvest reduces dollar inflow. The Central Bank (BCRA) reduced daily purchases from USD 138 million (Apr-May) to USD 79 million (June).
Year-end bonus ("aguinaldo") and tourism for the 2026 World Cup drive dollar purchases for trips to the United States.
Financial analyst Esteban Medina adds: "The greater global strength of the dollar since March 2025 and the generalized weakness of emerging currencies weigh more than any local variable. The exchange rate increase wouldn't be a signal of distrust in the economic program, but rather a readjustment to adverse international conditions."
Talking about the "end of carry trade" without specifying the starting point is misleading. Accumulated gains in 2026 are very different depending on when investments began:
| Entry Moment | Result in Dollars |
|---|---|
| From January 2026 (CER bonds) | +18% profit |
| From January 2026 (Lecap) | +12% profit |
| Early June 2026 | Net loss |
"If the MEP exceeds the strategy's starting price, it's not synonymous with having lost, it's a reduction in return", Esteban Medina clarifies.
Bank of America maintains a constructive view on Argentina. Their report titled "Argentina – The Superior Carry Trade: Buy BONCER 2026 (TX26) – Hedge FX downside" recommends the Boncer 2026 (TX26), calculating that the strategy still generates a carry of 3.3% per quarter, with volatility of 3.5%.
Cadario details: "The market is undergoing a gradual rotation from fixed-rate peso instruments to short-term dollarized assets. It's not a stampede exit but a portfolio reconfiguration."
Kevin Warsh, new Federal Reserve Chairman, generated a regime change in communication. For the first time in over a decade, the Fed ended a meeting without telling markets what it plans to do.
The June "dot plot" reveals that 9 of 18 officials project at least one rate hike for the remainder of 2026. The implied probability of a December hike exceeds 40% according to CME FedWatch.
Carry trade hasn't died, but it's no longer the automatic business many investors thought it was. Those who bet on the peso in January and held their position still profit in dollars. Those who entered in June lost. In a market where the critical variable is the exchange rate, entry timing is worth as much as the chosen instrument. Wall Street is watching the dollar, not interest rates. And that already says everything about how the scenario has changed.
Alfredo S. Quiroga
