04/07/2026 14:17 - Economia
Argentina's fight against inflation might have an unexpected ally in the energy sector. For our international readers, it is important to note that YPF (Yacimientos Petrolíferos Fiscales) is Argentina's state-owned energy company, playing a crucial role in local fuel pricing. According to a report by local consultancy 1816, domestic fuel prices have become misaligned with international oil values. To return to the historical ratio with the Brent barrel prior to the Middle East conflict, local fuel prices should drop by approximately 16%.
This reduction would have a direct impact of roughly 0.65 percentage points on the Consumer Price Index (IPC), not counting the indirect positive effects on transportation and logistics costs. However, the final decision will depend on YPF's strategy and the national government's economic priorities.
During the months when the international price of crude oil skyrocketed, YPF avoided transferring that full increase to the gas pumps. This strategy created a "buffer"—a financial cushion that softened the inflationary impact for everyday Argentines, but simultaneously reduced the company's refining and marketing margins.
Now, with the Brent barrel correcting downwards, local fuels remain relatively expensive. Economist Leo Anzalone, director of CEPEC (Center for Economic and Policy Studies), suggests that the government will likely use this scenario to rebuild that lost margin, keeping prices stable at the pump rather than applying an immediate nominal price cut.
Consultancy 1816 outlines two scenarios for the coming months:
Economist Federico Glustein agrees that the government will likely opt to recover the invested funds, which would also improve tax revenue from fuel, an amount that has been falling in real terms due to inflation.
Various private measurements indicate that June's inflation in Argentina would have broken below the 2% monthly mark. For Balanz Research, inflation is expected to hit 1.9% for June and July, averaging 1.5% monthly in the second half of the year, projecting an annual rate of 27.5%. Implicit prices in CER bonds (inflation-linked sovereign bonds) reflect even more optimistic expectations, nearing 1.4% monthly for the fourth quarter.
Alfredo S. Quiroga
