14/07/2026 06:24 - Economia
The international grain market is experiencing a moment of great dynamism and opportunities. According to reports from Clarín Rural and Ámbito, the soybean price in Chicago (the global benchmark exchange for grains) saw a solid rebound of 5% during the previous week, reaching US$ 437.90 per ton. On Monday, July 13, 2026, it added a new gain of US$ 1.84, hitting US$ 439.73, its highest value since May.
This optimistic scenario is bolstered by China's return to the market. The Asian giant bought almost 900,000 tons of US soybeans last week and a new shipment of 136,000 tons on Monday. There is a firm expectation that the country will purchase around 25 million tons annually. To this is added the return of speculative funds (investors seeking profits by betting on market trends), which doubled their long positions to 10 million tons in just one week.
Two key factors are driving this trend. On one hand, military tensions between the US and Iran reactivated the threat of closing the Strait of Hormuz, a vital maritime passage for global oil trade. This triggered the price of crude, which spilled over to the grain market: soybean oil rose by US$ 48 to US$ 1,610 per ton, an increase of over 5% in the week.
On the other hand, the weather market is generating uncertainty about supply. Forecasts indicate heatwaves and lack of rain in the US soybean belt until August, a crucial time for pod setting. Additionally, the quarterly stocks report from the USDA (United States Department of Agriculture) estimated a lower-than-expected volume of stocks, lowering corn forecasts to 51.31 million tons for the 2025/2026 cycle.
| Commodity | Price (US$/ton) | Variation |
|---|---|---|
| Soybean | 439.73 | +5% weekly |
| Soybean Oil | 1,610 | +5% weekly |
| Corn | 173.61 | +4% weekly |
| Wheat | 235.20 | +6.75% weekly* |
*Wheat registered a downward correction of US$1.84 in the last session due to profit-taking.
Despite record prices, Argentine farmers have committed only 42% of the 2025/26 harvest and priced just 27%, the lowest forward sale coverage (future sales contracts) since the 1994/95 campaign.
Based on an estimated production of 51.5 million tons, only 21.8 million were committed, 19% below the historical average.
According to a report by the Rosario Board of Trade (a key agricultural exchange in Argentina) cited by Rosario3, the international rally sustained local prices, where soybeans were paid up to US$ 325 per ton, a value not seen since May when adjusted for inflation. However, the flip side of this phenomenon is retention.
Analyst Paulina Lescano explained that previous low prices created buying opportunities for funds and expectations of Chinese repurchasing. But why aren't Argentine farmers selling? The answer lies in a liquidity strategy: the abundant supply of wheat and sunflower, combined with dynamic external demand for corn that already marked an export record, channeled the sector's income toward those grains, postponing commitments on soybeans.
For major grain companies (known locally as cerealeras) like Bunge and the SMEs operating in the Greater Rosario area (a massive port and agro-industrial hub responsible for over 80% of Argentina's agro-industrial exports), this combination of high prices and scarce grain represents a financial challenge. The longer farmers take to sell, the more short-term financing companies need to sustain crushing and shipping operations.
This market, full of new actors and financial demand, presents a great opportunity for companies with greater capacity for early purchasing. While there is a risk of a reversal if the conflict in the Middle East deactivates, the current dynamic demonstrates the strength and resilience of the Argentine agro-export complex against global ups and downs.
Alfredo S. Quiroga
