14/07/2026 10:18 - Economia
Sources indicate that the Central Bank of the Argentine Republic (BCRA) has deployed an aggressive strategy to maintain exchange rate stability, pouring US$1 billion into the futures and bond markets during July 2026. This intervention could be part of a broader US$20 billion shield designed to prevent sudden jumps in the exchange rate.
Measures are expected to include intervention in futures, the sale of dollar-linked bonds, and liquidity management through repo operations. Additionally, sources confirm that a repo for US$6 billion with 10 banks was renewed, strengthening the monetary authority's position.
Context for foreigners: The Blue Dollar is the informal parallel exchange rate. MEP and CCL are financial exchange rates used to buy dollar-denominated assets legally within the local system.
Country Risk measures the premium investors demand to hold Argentine sovereign debt compared to US Treasuries.
The official dollar is said to have closed lower for the second consecutive day, erasing the accumulated increase in July. Meanwhile, the blue dollar reportedly jumped by $15, closing at $1,520 in Buenos Aires and $1,536 in Córdoba. The country risk could be at levels not seen since March 2018, hovering around 400 points. Analysts from consulting firms such as Facimex Valores, GMA, and Clave Bursátil suggest it could fall to 350 or even 300 points if there are no political disruptions.
The national government is reported to have made a debt payment of US$4.2 billion and might plan to launch the Bonar 2029 bond for US$2 billion on July 15, 2026. The financial plan for 2027 projects covering US$24.9 billion.
With term deposit rates ranging between 16% and 19.5% (TNA - Nominal Annual Rate) and projected inflation for June around 1.8% (according to consulting firms), analysts suggest that the carry trade might again be an attractive strategy for investors. This rate differential would allow savers to earn in pesos and then convert to dollars at a controlled exchange rate, in a context where the BCRA seeks to anchor the dollar near $1,500.
Context: The local carry trade refers to the strategy of placing money in high-yielding peso term deposits and later buying financial dollars (MEP or CCL) at a stable or controlled rate, thus beating local inflation and securing purchasing power.
Alfredo S. Quiroga
