15/07/2026 16:28 - Economia
On July 15, 2026, the International Monetary Fund (FMI) issued a severe warning about the global oil market situation. According to the international body, the crude oil supply could take up to three months to normalize even if the strategic Strait of Hormuz reopens. For readers unfamiliar with the region, the Strait of Hormuz is a narrow chokepoint between the Persian Gulf and the Gulf of Oman, through which nearly 25% of the world's maritime oil trade passes.
The IMF identified three key factors that have so far prevented a much larger spike in barrel prices. However, the organization warned that these resources—including strategic reserves and production flexibility from other nations—are rapidly depleting. While the situation is tense, global cooperation remains a beacon of hope to prevent further economic shocks.
This warning comes at a time of peak tension in the Middle East. The United States has launched its third consecutive night of attacks against Iranian military targets, aiming to degrade Tehran's ability to strike ships in the strategic strait. In response, Iran has attacked U.S. bases located in Jordan, Kuwait, and Bahrain. The truce previously signed on June 17, 2026, has unfortunately collapsed.
U.S. President Donald Trump reinstated the naval blockade and imposed a 20% toll on ships passing through Hormuz. He also threatened to destroy Iranian civilian infrastructure if no agreement is reached. Despite these threats, diplomatic efforts are actively maintained through mediators like Qatar, Pakistan, and Oman, offering hope for a peaceful resolution.
The direct impact on markets is undeniable: Brent crude oil (the global benchmark for oil prices) rose by 2.5%, reaching USD 85.37 per barrel. Furthermore, threats from the Houthi militias in Yemen (a rebel group controlling parts of the country) to close the Strait of Bab el-Mandeb could push prices up to USD 200 per barrel, according to experts, making diplomatic solutions more crucial than ever.
Alfredo S. Quiroga
