20/07/2026 10:55 - Economia
The financial market is currently experiencing a wave of optimism and expectation regarding a potential upgrade to Argentina's sovereign debt credit rating. All eyes are on Moody's, one of the top three global credit rating agencies, which is reportedly evaluating raising the country's rating in the coming days.
According to specialized media outlets such as iProfesional and BAE Negocios, Moody's is expected to apply an upgrade from 'Caa1' to 'B3'. This move would align Argentina's rating with the other major agencies, following recent upgrades by Fitch (on May 5, 2026) and S&P Rating (on June 10, 2026), both of which raised the country's grade to 'B-'.
A credit rating is a grade assigned by international agencies to a country, indicating how safe it is to lend money to it. An upgrade means there is greater confidence that the country will meet its debt payments. This allows more investors worldwide to purchase Argentina's dollar-denominated bonds, which are essentially debt instruments issued by the government in US currency.
Country risk is an indicator that measures the level of risk associated with investing in a specific country. Currently, Argentina's country risk hovers around 405 basis points. A lower number means higher confidence and allows the country to borrow at lower interest rates. Analysts estimate it could fall below 400 basis points, a level not seen since April 2018.
Various financial advisory firms agree that the outlook is highly encouraging. According to Delphos Investment, Argentina often reacts with a 'lag' to rating agencies, meaning bond prices react to the news rather than anticipating it. Therefore, the announcement could trigger an additional rally (a period of sustained increases in prices).
Analyst Martín Genero projects that a convergence of country risk towards the 300 basis points zone would imply spectacular gains for sovereign bonds in dollars:
| Bond | Estimated Gain |
|---|---|
| Bonar 2035 (AL35) | 6.8% |
| Bonar 2041 (AL41) | 6.6% |
| Global 2046 (GD46) | 6.4% |
| Global 2041 (GD41) | 6.4% |
| Bonar 2038 (AE38) | 6.0% |
| Global 2035 (GD35) | 5.9% |
Meanwhile, analyst Gustavo Ber notes that longer-term bonds (maturing in 2035, 2038, and 2041) would be the primary beneficiaries. In the stock market, the main protagonists would be banks, such as Banco Macro and Grupo Financiero Galicia, with potential increases around 5%. This is because these banks hold sovereign bonds in their portfolios and would see their assets appreciate.
On the local front, the S&P Merval (Argentina's main stock market index) registered moderate declines related to coupon payments, although energy stocks like YPF (the state-controlled energy company) showed an increase of 3.42%. In the parallel market, the dólar blue (the informal exchange rate widely used by locals and tourists) is trading around 1,530 Argentine pesos per dollar, while the official exchange rate sits near 1,500 pesos.
Internationally, the resumption of hostilities in the Middle East caused a rise in oil prices, with the WTI barrel trading at USD 74.64 and Brent at USD 79.36. However, this impact did not significantly affect major markets, and local analysts maintain a positive, medium-term focus for the Argentine economy.
Alfredo S. Quiroga
