20/07/2026 19:36 - Economia
On July 20, 2026, Argentina's financial market opened the week with a calm and stable outlook. The official dollar remained firm at $1,500 for sale at Banco Nacion (Argentina's largest state-owned bank), while the wholesale dollar—used primarily for foreign trade—registered its fourth consecutive increase, closing at $1,481. This positive scenario occurs in a context where investors are regaining confidence in peso-denominated investments, driven by a deceleration in inflation.
The term carry trade refers to a strategy where investors buy assets in a currency offering high interest rates, financing it in another currency with lower rates. In Argentina, decelerating inflation and interest rates yielding above inflation are making it very attractive to stay in pesos.
The blue dollar (the informal exchange rate widely used by locals and tourists) advanced to $1,540, marking its highest price in nine months, although the gap with the official rate remains manageable. The market is closely watching the ceiling of the exchange rate band, located at $1,831.31, leaving the wholesale rate at 23.7% below this threshold. In 2026 so far, the official exchange rate has risen only 1.8%, well below the accumulated inflation of the first half of the year.
One of the most hopeful pieces of data is the return of interest in local currency instruments. The latest Treasury auction managed to roll over maturities above 100% and placed Lecaps (Treasury Bills) with an annual effective rate close to 25.6%. Economists like Gustavo Ber highlighted that the combination of official foreign currency purchases and the high 'rollover' (renewal) of peso debt sustains the balance of the monetary market.
Analysts are looking at the coming weeks with optimism. There is a strong expectation regarding a possible improvement in the credit rating by Moody's, which could move from 'Caa1' to 'B3'. This could push the country risk below 400 basis points, facilitating access to international financing.
On the external front, the June foreign trade data provided more good news. According to INDEC (National Institute of Statistics and Census), exports totaled USD 9.055 billion, a record high for the month, generating a trade surplus of USD 2.194 billion. It is projected that throughout 2026, the inflow of foreign currency from the agricultural, mining, and energy sectors will reach USD 57.168 billion, setting a historical record and reinforcing the robustness of the Argentine economy.
Source: imago.com.ar
Alfredo S. Quiroga
