14/06/2026 12:12 - Economia
Infografía que muestra dos caminos: un lado con gráficos ascendentes en verde representando logros económicos (calificación B-, riesgo país bajo, inflación en descenso), y otro lado con símbolos de crisis política (documentos confidenciales, un reloj detenido, y una balanza desequilibrada). Estilo corporativo serio con colores verdes y rojos contrastantes sobre fondo neutro.
Luis Caputo, Argentina's Minister of Economy, experienced what many call "the best week of his management". Standard & Poor's upgraded Argentina's credit rating from CCC+ to B- with a stable outlook, following a similar move by Fitch a month prior. The country risk fell to 437 basis points, the lowest level since May 2018. Monthly inflation for May reached 2.1%, the lowest in eight months. The Central Bank (BCRA) extended its streak to 107 consecutive days of net dollar purchases, accumulating over USD 10.6 billion in 2026.
The case involving Manuel Adorni, the government's Chief of Staff and official spokesperson, has ceased to be a domestic issue, becoming a threat to international confidence. The Financial Times published a note recalling that Adorni is not a marginal official: he is the official voice of the government, tasked with explaining the "purity of the adjustment from the podium."
The British newspaper connected this episode with other blows to the official transparency narrative: the presidential promotion of Libra (the cryptocurrency scandal that left President Javier Milei in a compromised position), and the investigation into alleged bribes in ANDIS (National Administration of Social Security), implicating Karina Milei (the President's sister and General Secretary) and members of the Menem family.
Caputo reportedly threatened to resign during a phone call with a close advisor if Javier Milei does not close the case. Not out of public morality, but because he sees that "the trust setup is catching fire," a setup that international markets demand.
The S&P upgrade does not mean Argentina is "cured." In the CCC zone, an issuer appears on the brink of default. In B-, risk remains high, and debt continues in the speculative category. But the nuance is key for Wall Street.
With the improvement, many international funds that were statute-barred from buying sovereign bonds in the CCC zone can now enter. Large conservative funds may not appear, but high-yield players who accept danger in exchange for higher rates will.
For context: before the 2018 crisis, Argentina's rating was better than current. S&P had Argentina at B+ stable. Moody's at B2 stable. Fitch at B positive. With that rating, the run unfolded, and the IMF arrived.
Patricia Bullrich (Minister of Security) took the opportunity to distance herself from the scandal: "This is more than an error; this is an ethical omission. And our Government has morality as state policy," she stated, signaling autonomy.
Consultancies Adhoc and Enter Comunicación detected that 82.1% of mentions about Adorni were negative between June 3 and 6. The report noted a significant portion of posts involving Javier Milei, evidencing a transfer of political cost to the President.
In Congress, requests for interrogation and censorship motions are piling up. Victoria Villarruel (Vice President) activated institutional mechanisms for Adorni to report to the Senate. The Casa Rosada (seat of government) aims to postpone the visit until July.
The government paints an optimistic picture. During a private Fitch presentation in Buenos Aires, Vice Minister José Luis Daza showed optimistic consumption and employment data. However, the rating agency's staff tempered several official figures.
Todd Martínez, responsible for the sovereign rating, pointed to the UTDT confidence index, which maintains a downward trend. He also questioned fiscal surplus solidity: when incorporating provincial results, the account tends to neutralize.
Fitch warned it is unlikely to improve the rating again until Argentina accumulates near USD 62 billion in reserves, eliminates currency restrictions, and passes "several electoral turns" consolidating stability.
While macroeconomics celebrates, other indicators show the real economy is not responding. According to SIPA data, over 10,000 registered jobs were lost in March. Manufacturing fell 2.8% year-on-year, accumulating its ninth decline in ten months.
Food and beverages rose 2.5% in May, above the general CPI. The Basic Food Basket increased 2.4%, while the Total Basic Basket rose 2%. A typical family needs $1,498,741 ARS monthly to not be considered poor.
Disposable income fell nearly 12% during Milei's management. Home maintenance costs absorb almost a quarter of the average salary. Regulated prices and services run above average inflation.
| Bank | Nominal Annual Rate | Total Annual Financial Cost |
|---|---|---|
| Banco Nación (with package) | 74% | 171.76% |
| Banco Provincia (state) | 79% | 114.92% |
| BBVA / Galicia (pre-approved) | 129% | 240.51% |
The difference between what banks pay for deposits (15-19% annual) and what they charge for loans (up to 240% total cost) generates a 50 percentage point gap. The delinquency ratio for private sector credit reached 7% in March, 5 points higher than a year ago. Family delinquency reached 11.5%.
The financial market sees no systemic risks from the Adorni scandal, trusting the economic team and macro fundamentals. But the case crossed the domestic border, reaching international finance circles. Trust does not exist in the abstract: it is manufactured, staged, and cared for. In this context, Adorni is not just Adorni. He is a reminder that financial confidence can be shiny but also flammable. Caputo knows this: the market forgives almost everything, except the set falling down before the curtain rises.
Alfredo S. Quiroga
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