30/06/2026 21:54 - Economia
The month of June 2026 delivered mixed results for investors in Argentina. While sovereign bonds in dollars consolidated as the winning bet with monthly advances of up to 4.4% and returns between 6% and 7% in dollars during the month, stocks faced a more complex scenario after MSCI decided to keep Argentina in standalone category, outside frontier or emerging markets.
Country risk became the big positive story: it dropped 14% during June, reaching 426 basis points, its lowest level since 2018. This represents a 25% improvement from the 571 points recorded at the start of 2026, according to the monthly analysis by Balanz.
Source: Portfolio Personal Inversiones, Balanz
Source: IOL, El Cronista
The main catalyst was S&P Global Ratings' decision to upgrade Argentina's debt rating to B-, joining the improvement previously made by Fitch. With two of the three major rating agencies placing the country in this category, the market interpreted a significant improvement in Argentina's credit profile.
According to Pedro Siaba Serrate from Portfolio Personal Inversiones, "the credit story exhibited the highest returns of the month." However, he warned that with the rating improvement already priced in and country risk at lows, "the potential for additional compression of sovereign spreads looks more limited," making CER-adjusted bonds attractive for investors with higher risk tolerance.
Country risk measures the probability that a state will fail to meet its financial obligations. It is expressed in basis points over the risk-free rate (usually US Treasury bonds). A lower value indicates greater investor confidence. Argentina started 2026 with 571 points and reached 426 in June, a 25% improvement.
What are basis points? One basis point equals 0.01%. So 426 basis points means investors demand an additional 4.26% yield compared to US Treasuries as compensation for Argentina's risk.
The bond rally is framed within a context of macroeconomic improvement. The BCRA (Central Bank of Argentina) accumulated purchases of USD 11 billion in 2026, international reserves reached USD 47.081 billion, and the trade surplus accumulated a record USD 11.783 billion between January and May 2026.
Damián Vlassich, Team Leader of Investment Strategies at IOL, highlighted that "fixed income was again the big winner of the month" thanks to the combination of rating improvement, country risk decline, progress in the disinflation process, and external financing expectations.
Projected inflation 2026 (BBVA Research)
Projected inflation 2027 (BBVA Research)
December 2026 dollar projection
Merval: The main stock market index of Argentina (Buenos Aires Stock Exchange), similar to the S&P 500 in the US but composed of Argentine companies.
Global Bonds (Bonos Globales): Dollar-denominated sovereign bonds issued under international law, considered the safest Argentine debt instruments.
CER-adjusted bonds: Bonds indexed to Argentine inflation (CER = Reference Stabilization Coefficient), offering protection against peso depreciation.
MSCI Standalone: A classification meaning Argentina is not included in MSCI's emerging or frontier markets indices, limiting foreign institutional investment.
Consultancies agree on maintaining a favorable but more selective view on Argentine assets. Balanz recommends prioritizing carry strategies (yield from interest payments) over duration in sovereign debt, after June's rally where part of the upside potential was already captured.
Eric Paniagua, partner at PX Bursátil, noted that "June left a scenario of higher volatility" globally, with markets attentive to Federal Reserve decisions and geopolitical tensions that kept safe-haven assets in demand.
Internationally, Wall Street closed its best quarter since the pandemic. Both the S&P 500 and Nasdaq recorded their best quarterly performance since the second quarter of 2020, despite uncertainty over monetary policy and conflicts in the Middle East.
Sources: El Cronista, Balanz, Portfolio Personal Inversiones, IOL, BBVA Research
Alfredo S. Quiroga
