02/07/2026 04:55 - Economia
The Argentine country risk indicator closed the first half of 2026 at 426 basis points, marking its lowest level since 2018, according to financial market data. This represents a decrease of 25.1% year-to-date and 13.6% in June alone, consolidating a trend that reflects growing international investor confidence in local assets.
This indicator measures the yield spread between Argentine bonds and US Treasury bonds (considered risk-free). It has nearly halved compared to the 255 basis point spread over emerging markets recorded at the beginning of the year. Currently, the spread sits at just 98 basis points.
| Indicator | Value |
|---|---|
| Official Dollar (Sale) | $1.500 |
| Wholesale Dollar | $1,481.50 |
| Blue Dollar (Parallel) | $1,510-$1,515 |
| July Projection | $1,504 |
| December Projection | $1,653 |
Facing electoral uncertainty on the horizon for the 2027 presidential elections, financial analysts recommend dollarizing portfolios and reducing exposure to sovereign bonds. This strategy aims to protect assets while capitalizing on opportunities within the local market.
CEDEARs are Argentine Depositary Receipts that allow investing in foreign companies.
Short-duration corporate fixed income offers yields near 7% annually in dollars.
The S&P Merval (the main Argentine stock index) advanced 1.7% in June, closing at 3,176,751 points, while dollar-denominated bonds rose up to 1.4% (highlighting the Global 2030 bond). On Wall Street, Argentine ADRs (American Depositary Receipts) recorded gains of up to 4.1%.
However, the first trading day of July showed a correction: The Merval fell 1.6% to 3,128,135.41 points and 2.2% in dollar terms (1,994.84 units). ADRs lost up to 4% on Wall Street, with Supervielle leading the declines at -4%, followed by TGS (-3.6%) and Cresud (-3.3%).
July presents a particular challenge: there is a USD 4.3 billion private debt payment due on July 9th and IMF payments of USD 800 million between August and September. Inflation projections from BBVA Research estimate 29% for 2026 and 20% for 2027.
Country risk is an indicator that measures the probability of a country defaulting on its financial obligations. It is calculated as the difference between the yield of that country's sovereign bonds and US Treasury bonds (considered lower risk). A lower level indicates greater confidence from international investors. The last time Argentina had a similar country risk level was in 2018, prior to the financial crisis.
Sources: Ámbito Financiero, Infobae, BBVA Research, BCRA
Alfredo S. Quiroga
