02/07/2026 04:47 - Economia
July 2026 brings a more favorable financial outlook than previous months. The country risk dropped to 426 basis points, its lowest level since 2018, while the Central Bank (BCRA) has accumulated USD 11 billion in purchases this year, with reserves exceeding USD 47.081 billion. However, a new factor is gaining prominence among analysts: the potential impact of the 2027 electoral calendar on investment decisions.
One of the main pieces of advice for July is to review the degree of dollarization in investment portfolios. Financial advisor Fernando Villar argues that those with high exposure to peso-denominated instruments should begin increasing their share of dollar-denominated assets.
"I believe it is time to start dollarizing the portfolio a bit," Villar states, recommending that investors take advantage of upcoming capital and interest payments from Argentine sovereign bonds to gradually decrease that position.
Consultant Mariano Monferini suggests that conservative investors should consider increasing their exposure to the dollar through mutual funds denominated in that currency, specifically those holding international assets, thereby reducing dependence on the Argentine market.
For those needing short-term peso liquidity, Monferini highlights that caución bursátil (a repurchase agreement mechanism) remains an attractive tool with rates near 25% nominal annual, allowing for yield generation without assuming the volatility of public securities.
Villar recommends reducing exposure to sovereign bonds to anticipate a scenario of political uncertainty. "It is advisable to start reducing exposure slightly, speculating on the volatility that will begin to arise due to the electoral issue," he notes.
In equities, the recommendation is to be much more selective. Villar proposes analyzing which companies might be favored or harmed by a potential change in government.
| Sector | Recommended Companies | Rationale |
|---|---|---|
| Financial | BYMA, Grupo Galicia | Higher trading volume and credit growth. |
| Energy | YPF, Pampa Energía | Development of Vaca Muerta and export infrastructure. |
| Agribusiness/Real Estate | Cresud | Combined exposure to both sectors. |
Trader Germán Marín assigns 20% of his suggested portfolio to local stocks, prioritizing these companies. In his analysis, BYMA could benefit from higher trading volume following the decline in country risk, while YPF and Pampa Energía maintain potential due to the development of Vaca Muerta.
For international investments (through Cedears - Argentine Deposit Certificates representing foreign stocks), Monferini maintains a prudent stance as major US indices trade near historical highs.
Defensive alternative for those seeking stability.
Opportunity following moderate performance with solid fundamentals.
Combination of technology, growth, and defensive profile.
Corporate fixed income continues to hold a central place in recommendations, though with an important shift: reduce duration and focus on high-quality issuers.
"It is time to start reducing duration and being much more selective with titles and credits." The goal is to enter the next year with a portfolio of solid companies, low debt levels, and less sensitivity to political changes.
Marín allocates 25% of his portfolio to corporate bonds in dollars (known locally as Obligaciones Negociables) from top-tier companies linked to energy, telecommunications, and real estate. These instruments aim for yields near 7% annually in dollars with cash flows less dependent on the electoral context.
Source: Ámbito Financiero | Investment recommendations are for guidance purposes and do not constitute personalized financial advice.
Alfredo S. Quiroga
