14/06/2026 04:22 - Economia
Gráfico del riesgo país argentino mostrando una línea descendente desde 503 hasta 437 puntos básicos, con un marcador destacando 'Mínimo desde 2018' y el logotipo de S&P con un upgrade de CCC+ a B-
Argentina's country risk index reached its lowest level in eight years this week, marking a significant turning point in the nation's economic recovery. The benchmark index compiled by global investment bank JP Morgan fell from 503 basis points on Wednesday to 437 units on Friday, June 13, 2026—a drop of 65 points in just two days.
Country risk is a financial indicator that measures the probability that a nation will default on its debt obligations. It's calculated as the difference (in basis points) between the yield on a country's sovereign bonds and the yield on U.S. Treasury bonds of similar maturity. One basis point equals 0.01%.
For example: A country risk of 437 means investors demand an additional 4.37% yield above U.S. Treasury rates to compensate for the perceived risk of lending to Argentina.
The lower the number, the more confidence international investors have in a country's ability to repay its debts.
This movement responds to Standard & Poor's decision to raise Argentina's sovereign debt rating to "B-" from "CCC+", joining the previous upgrade by Fitch Ratings. With two of the three major credit rating agencies placing Argentina in the "B" category, the country is now technically positioned at that level by market convention.
Credit rating agencies assign letter grades to countries' debt:
Argentina's upgrade from CCC+ to B- signals that the country has moved from "highly vulnerable to default" to "able to meet financial commitments despite adverse economic conditions."
Eric Ritondale, Chief Economist at Puente (a leading Argentine financial services firm), explained that the country risk compression responds to this rating change that "unlocks investment inflows to Argentine assets."
According to the specialist: "Many investment funds operate under strict regulatory restrictions that prevent them from holding assets from countries rated within the 'CCC' range. Typically, these mandates require at least two of the three major international agencies to rate the sovereign in the 'B' category to authorize new capital allocations."
This regulatory improvement opens the door to both passive and active fund flows that previously had Argentine risk prohibited.
The bond price increases seen this time doubled those recorded when Fitch announced its rating upgrade. The difference between Argentine bond yields and other emerging market yields settled at 250 basis points—the decade's minimum—compared to 450 points at the beginning of the year.
According to a report by GMA Capital (an Argentine investment firm): "The category change expands the universe of potential investors, as numerous institutional funds have restrictions on holding assets rated 'CCC'. In this regard, market estimates suggest that capital potentially enabled to invest in Argentina could expand from USD 150-250 billion to over USD 300 billion."
Argentina's country risk of 437 basis points places the country 19th among 21 Latin American and Caribbean nations tracked by JP Morgan. The regional leaderboard is topped by Uruguay with just 63 points, followed by Chile (83) and Paraguay (103).
At the opposite end is Venezuela with 5,884 points, followed by Belize (1,207) and Bolivia (539). The average country risk for Latin America stands at 248 basis points, meaning Argentina exceeds that threshold by 189 points.
| Country | Country Risk (basis points) |
|---|---|
| Uruguay | 63 |
| Chile | 83 |
| Paraguay | 103 |
| Peru | 106 |
| Guatemala | 109 |
| Jamaica | 111 |
| Panama | 112 |
| Costa Rica | 126 |
| Brazil | 180 |
| Colombia | 189 |
| Mexico | 196 |
| Ecuador | 387 |
| Argentina | 437 |
| Bolivia | 539 |
| Venezuela | 5,884 |
Marcos Montero, Sales Trader at Balanz (an Argentine brokerage firm), noted that the improvement is supported by three fundamental pillars:
He specified that "the Central Bank of Argentina (BCRA) has accumulated more than USD 10.2 billion in net purchases so far in 2026", which reinforces international investor confidence.
Analysts at Rava Bursátil (an Argentine financial services company) added that S&P's decision responds to reserve accumulation, improvement in fiscal accounts, and the reform agenda implemented by the government of President Javier Milei, who took office in December 2023 promising economic shock therapy.
With country risk in the 350-450 point range, the government could issue debt in the market to refinance maturities at single-digit rates, though still close to 9%.
According to GMA Capital: "If the fiscal consolidation process, inflation deceleration, and reserve strengthening can be sustained, there is room for yield convergence toward levels observed in other issuers with similar ratings."
Martín Polo, Head of Strategy at Cohen (an Argentine financial firm), considered that country risk is no longer a limitation for a potential bond issuance. However, Economy Minister Luis Caputo has for now ruled out issuing market debt, preferring other avenues to obtain dollars.
Analyst Salvador Di Stéfano from iProfesional highlighted that the AE38 bond (Argentina's dollar-denominated bond maturing in 2038) appears most attractive: its price is USD 83 and projects payments of approximately USD 12 for the coming year (July 2026 coupon, December 2027 coupon plus amortization, and 2027 coupon). This would represent a return of 14.5% in dollars if the bond maintains parity.
Regarding stocks, analysts suggest that oil shares like Vista (an Argentine energy company) and YPF (the state-controlled oil company) could decline if crude oil breaks below USD 80 per barrel. Meanwhile, SpaceX's entry into the market has generated renewed interest in technology stocks.
Country Risk: A measure of the risk associated with investing in a particular country, considering political, economic, and financial factors.
Basis Points: A unit of measure equal to 1/100th of 1 percentage point. 437 basis points = 4.37%.
Sovereign Bonds: Debt securities issued by national governments to raise capital. Investors who buy these bonds are essentially lending money to the issuing country.
BCRA: Banco Central de la República Argentina (Central Bank of Argentina), the country's monetary authority responsible for managing currency reserves and monetary policy.
Sources: TN, Infobae, iProfesional
Alfredo S. Quiroga
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